ArticleJournal der Deutschen Dermatologischen Gesellschaft = Journal of the German Society of Dermatology : JDDG2025
Evaluation of skin cancer screening in Germany - a Microsimulation.
Article in Journal der Deutschen Dermatologischen Gesellschaft = Journal of the German Society of Dermatology : JDDG, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A systematic review of microsimulation models for skin cancer.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2025Pooled it
- Melanoma in Chile: demographics and clinico-pathological features.Frontiers in oncology · 2025Article
- Evaluation of skin cancer screening in Germany - a Microsimulation.Journal der Deutschen Dermatologischen Gesellschaft = Journal of the German Society of Dermatology : JDDG · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundComprehensive skin cancer screening was introduced in Germany in 2008. It is unclear whether subsequently observed changes in the epidemiology of malignant melanoma (MM), squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) are due to the screening. Simulation models are used to compare different screening scenarios with each other and with observed incidence and mortality trends.
methodsA microsimulation model for MM, SCC, and BCC was programmed and validated separately by sex on skin cancer-specific mortality data. In addition to the currently practiced screening (biennial offer, annual participation probability 15%), triennial screening, screening with increased participation, e.g., via invitation, and no screening were simulated. Incidence, mortality, costs, and life-years gained were simulated for 30 years from the start of screening.
resultsCompared with no screening, mortality is reduced by 13.8% in the simulation with current conditions. This effect occurs in the first years after screening starts before reaching a stable level. More screening allows for further increases in incidence, life-years gained, and costs and decreases in mortality. Comparing simulated and observed effects shows little agreement.
conclusionsThe model is useful for comparing screening scenarios to identify potential optimization opportunities in SCS. Additional, especially risk-adapted, screening scenarios should be investigated.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.