GPS-Based Hidden Markov Models to Document Pastoral Mobility in the Sahel.

In agrarian systems where animal mobility is crucial for feed management, nutrient cycles and household economy, there is a notable lack of precise data on livestock mobility and herding practices. We introduce a methodology leveraging GPS-based behavioural models to analyse and document pastoral mobility in the Sahel. Over 2.5 years, we conducted a continuous collection of GPS data from transhumant and resident cattle herds in the Senegalese agropastoral semiarid rangelands. We developed a Hidden Markov Model robustly fitted to these data to classify recordings into three states of activity: resting (47% overall), foraging (37%) and travelling (16%). We detail our process for selecting the states and testing data subsets to guide future similar endeavours. The model describes state changes and how temperature affects them. By combining the resulting dataset with satellite-based land-use data, we show the distribution of activities across landscapes and seasons and within a day. We accurately reproduced key aspects of cattle mobility and characterised rarely documented features of Sahel agropastoral practices, such as transhumance phases, nocturnal grazing and in-field rainy season paddocking. These results suggest that our methodology, which we make available, could be valuable in addressing issues related to the future of Sahelian pastoralism.