Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39515836›Full record

ArticleEuropean heart journal2024

Centrally adjudicated vs. investigator-reported outcomes in randomized heart failure trials.

Simon Wandel, Akshay S Desai, Chien-Wei Chen, John J V McMurray, Milton Packer, Scott D Solomon, Marc A Pfeffer, G Michael Felker, Faiez Zannad, Mark C Petrie and 6 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in European heart journal, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. The potential of artificial intelligence in clinical trials.European journal of clinical investigation · 2026
    Review
  3. Left atrial appendage occlusion in patients with cancer.Journal of thrombosis and thrombolysis · 2025
    Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

16 authors.

Simon WandelDevelopment, Novartis Pharma AG, Forum 1, Novartis Campus, CH-4056 Basel, Switzerland.
Akshay S DesaiCardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Chien-Wei ChenNovartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation, East Hannover, NJ, USA.
John J V McMurrayBritish Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
Milton PackerBaylor Heart and Vascular Institute, Baylor University Medical Center, Dallas, TX, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1828-2387
Scott D SolomonCardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
Marc A PfefferCardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA.
G Michael FelkerDivision of Cardiology, Duke University School of Medicine and Duke Clinical Research Institute, Durham, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-5931-1239
Faiez ZannadUniversité de Lorraine INSERM, Centre d'Investigations Cliniques Plurithématique 1433, INSERM U1116, CHRU de Nancy, F-CRIN INI-CRCT, Nancy, France.
Mark C PetrieBritish Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
Pardeep S JhundBritish Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Research Centre, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-4306-5317
Zenab AttariNovartis Healthcare Pvt. Ltd, Hyderabad, India.
Guenther Mueller-VeltenDevelopment, Novartis Pharma AG, Forum 1, Novartis Campus, CH-4056 Basel, Switzerland.
Martin LefkowitzNovartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation, East Hannover, NJ, USA.
David SoergelDevelopment, Novartis Pharma AG, Forum 1, Novartis Campus, CH-4056 Basel, Switzerland.
Claudio GimpelewiczDevelopment, Novartis Pharma AG, Forum 1, Novartis Campus, CH-4056 Basel, Switzerland.

Funding

Novartis
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND

aimsHeart failure endpoints in cardiovascular outcome trials are commonly identified through centralized adjudication of investigator-reported events. It remains unclear whether central adjudication improves the accuracy of treatment effect estimates in terms of log[hazard ratios (HR)].

methodsData from seven cardiovascular outcome trials with >1000 patients that included centrally adjudicated heart failure outcomes were utilized to assess (i) the concordance between investigator-reported and centrally adjudicated heart failure and cardiovascular death events; (ii) rates of subsequent all-cause mortality following positively vs. negatively adjudicated heart failure events; and (iii) the correlation of log(HR) based on centrally adjudicated vs. investigator-reported events.

resultsPositive adjudication rates for investigator-reported events varied widely across trials, but were generally higher for cardiovascular death (range: 87.9%-99.2%) than for heart failure hospitalization (range: 61.6%-88.0%). The risk for subsequent all-cause death was similar for positively and negatively adjudicated heart failure hospitalizations. Log(HR) correlated well for cardiovascular death [R2 = .80, 95% credible interval (CrI): 0.53-0.93] and the composite of cardiovascular death or heart failure hospitalization (R2 = .79, 95% CrI: 0.46-0.93), but less for heart failure hospitalization (R2 = .57, 95% CrI: 0.10-0.83).

conclusionsPositive adjudication rates were lower for heart failure events than cardiovascular death, but even negatively adjudicated heart failure events are prognostically important. Central adjudication of events did not alter the results (precision or estimated log(HR)), though some variation was observed, depending on the indication. The results suggest that the decision to pursue centralized adjudication of heart failure events in a specific trial may need to be individualized.

Indexed as

Heart FailureHospitalizationRandomized Controlled Trials as TopicCause of DeathHumansTreatment OutcomeAdjudicationCardiovascular trialHeart failureInvestigator-reported outcomes

Identifiers

PMID39515836
PMCPMC11646619

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.