Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39512627›Full record

ArticleFrontiers in aging2024

Global burden of inflammatory bowel disease in the elderly: trends from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2051.

Ying Liu, Ju Li, Guangxia Yang, Deqian Meng, Xianming Long, Kai Wang

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Frontiers in aging, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  5. Increased osteoporosis burden and comparative antiresorptive effectiveness in inflammatory bowel disease: a real-world cohort study.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2026
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Review
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  10. Cross-national comparison of inflammatory bowel disease burden in China, Japan, the United States, and India: An age-period-cohort analysis of GBD 2021.Saudi journal of gastroenterology : official journal of the Saudi Gastroenterology Association · 2025
    Article
  11. The Controversies in the Relationship BetweenJournal of clinical medicine · 2025
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Ying LiuDepartment of Rheumatology and Immunology, The First People's Hospital of Yancheng, The Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University, Yancheng, China.
Ju LiDepartment of Rheumatology and Immunology, The Affiliated Huaian No.1 People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Huaian, China.
Guangxia YangDepartment of Rheumatology, Affiliated Hospital of Jiangnan University, Wuxi, China.
Deqian MengDepartment of Rheumatology and Immunology, The Affiliated Huaian No.1 People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Huaian, China.
Xianming LongDepartment of Rheumatology and Immunology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, Suzhou, China.
Kai WangDepartment of Rheumatology and Immunology, The Affiliated Huaian No.1 People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Huaian, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: This study aims to analyze the historical trends of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) burden in the elderly from 1990 to 2021 and forecast future trends up to 2051. Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 were utilized. Age-standardized rates (ASR) for incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were calculated. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were computed to quantify temporal trends. A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was employed to project future trends. Results: From 1990 to 2021, the global number of elderly IBD increased from 573,500 to 1,278,190. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) rose from 8.01 to 8.77 per 100,000, while the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) slightly decreased from 118.14 to 117.29 per 100,000. Death number increased from 14,400 to 33,490, but the age-standardized mortality rate decreased from 3.21 to 2.84 per 100,000. DALYs increased from 324,100 to 683,750, with the age-standardized DALYs rate declining from 68.78 to 60.88 per 100,000. Significant geographical variations were observed, with high Socio-demographic Index regions showing the highest burden. Projections suggest that by 2051, elderly IBD prevalence number may reach 2,316,000, with ASIR and ASPR potentially rising after 2035 and 2042, respectively. Deaths and DALYs are projected to increase to 75,000 and 1,401,000 respectively, despite continued declines in ASRs. Conclusion: The absolute burden of IBD in the elderly population is projected to increase substantially by 2051, despite decreasing ASRs. These findings underscore the need for tailored healthcare strategies and resource allocation to address the growing challenge of elderly IBD globally.

Indexed as

elderlyglobal burdeninflammatory bowel diseaseprojectionstrends

Identifiers

PMID39512627
PMCPMC11540814

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.