Social-ecological system trajectories of peri-urban watersheds based on a spatial analysis of vulnerability components: A case study in Mexico City, 1999-2039.

Urban periphery watersheds play a crucial role in providing diverse ecosystem services, especially hydrological services (HES), for society at different temporal and spatial scales; moreover, local populations directly influence ecosystem functionality through their decisions and actions. The interactions between social and ecological factors create social-ecological systems (SESs), whose trajectories continuously change in response to internal factors such as land use cover change (LUCC) and external factors such as climate change (CC). This situation influences the vulnerability of SESs in terms of exposure, sensitivity and adaptation capacity. In this study, the social-ecological vulnerability (SEV) of the periphery of Mexico City was investigated based on the Collaborative Protocol for Ecosystem Services Assessment and Social-ecological Vulnerability Mapping (ECOSER) and a quantitative method approach. For this purpose, spatial analysis was performed using the ecological and social spatial data for LUCC tendencies calculated for 1999-2019 and projected for short-term CC scenarios and using LUCC calculated for 2039 in trend-based (TREND) and restrictive (REST) scenarios. The results reveal that increases in the SEV in 2039 will be related to important decreases in the HES; furthermore, the REST scenario suggests decreases in the SEV due to decreases in the HES, assuming that environmental public policy instruments will be preserved in this region. The present work aims to contribute to decision-making for HES preservation at local and regional scales and to help develop adaptation strategies under LUCC and CC scenarios.