ArticleScience advances2024
Anthropogenic warming has ushered in an era of temperature-dominated droughts in the western United States.
Article in Science advances, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Heatwaves enable wildfire activity in the western United States.Science advances · 2026Article
- Warming and vegetation greening drive recent surge in flash droughts.Science advances · 2026Article
- Regional drying over the Western U.S. driven by enhanced atmospheric subsidence amid global moistening from 1980 to 2020.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Large-scale experimental evaluation of woody plant removal in desert grassland: Restoration, novelty, or degradation?Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America · 2026Article
- Climate Change, Air Quality, and Pollen Allergies-State of the Art and Recommendations for Research and Public Health.Allergy · 2026Review
- Trust-building as a Keystone Activity in Beaver-related Restoration Practice.Environmental management · 2026Article
- Human-induced temperature rise is driving Africa towards drought-prone climatic conditions.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Sequential Thresholds Shape Drylands' Multitrophic Response to Aridification.Ecology letters · 2025Article
- Inferring Snowpack Contributions and the Mean Elevation of Source Water to Streamflow in the Willamette River, Oregon using Water Stable Isotopes.Hydrological processes · 2025Article
- Plant Responses to Anomalous Heat and Drought Events in the Sonoran Desert.Global change biology · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Historically, meteorological drought in the western United States (WUS) has been driven primarily by precipitation deficits. However, our observational analysis shows that, since around 2000, rising surface temperature and the resulting high evaporative demand have contributed more to drought severity (62%) and coverage (66%) over the WUS than precipitation deficit. This increase in evaporative demand during droughts, mostly attributable to anthropogenic warming according to analyses of both observations and climate model simulations, is the main cause of the increased drought severity and coverage. The unprecedented 2020-2022 WUS drought exemplifies this shift in drought drivers, with high evaporative demand accounting for 61% of its severity, compared to 39% from precipitation deficit. Climate model simulations corroborate this shift and project that, under the fossil-fueled development scenario (SSP5-8.5), droughts like the 2020-2022 event will transition from a one-in-more-than-a-thousand-year event in the pre-2022 period to a 1-in-60-year event by the mid-21st century and to a 1-in-6-year event by the late-21st century.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.