Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39504021›Full record

ArticleJAMA network open2024

Quadrivalent Conjugate Vaccine and Invasive Meningococcal Disease in US Adolescents and Young Adults.

Thomas Shin, Chad R Wells, Affan Shoukat, Lilia Potter-Schwartz, Edith Langevin, Joanne M Langley, Alison P Galvani, Seyed M Moghadas

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in JAMA network open, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Review
  3. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Thomas ShinHealth Economics and Outcomes Research, Sanofi, New Jersey.
Chad R WellsCenter for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut.
Affan ShoukatDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada.
Lilia Potter-SchwartzCenter for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut.
Edith LangevinHealth Economics and Value Assessment, Sanofi, Lyon, France.
Joanne M LangleyCanadian Center for Vaccinology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada.
Alison P GalvaniCenter for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut.
Seyed M MoghadasAgent-Based Modelling Laboratory, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Importance: Beginning in 2005, the US implemented routine immunization of adolescents with a quadrivalent conjugate vaccine (MenACWY) for the prevention of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD). Objectives: To assess whether MenACWY immunization was associated with a reduced IMD burden among the US adolescent population and how the downward trajectory of IMD that began in the mid-1990s might have evolved in the absence of vaccination efforts. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this decision analytical study, a bayesian hierarchical Poisson regression model was developed to investigate the potential trajectory of IMD among US adolescents and young adults without vaccination and evaluate the direct association of vaccination with IMD burden. The model included the entire age-stratified US population and was fitted to national incidence data for serogroups C, W, and Y from January 1, 2001, to December 31, 2021, with stratification by vaccination status for IMD cases. Intervention: Simulated counterfactual scenario of absent vaccination from 2005 to 2021, while retaining the incidence rate of IMD for unvaccinated individuals estimated during model fitting. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were the estimated numbers of IMD cases and deaths averted by MenACWY vaccination among US adolescents and young adults aged 11 to 23 years. Results: Among the entire US population from 2005 to 2021, MenACWY vaccination prevented an estimated 172 (95% credible interval [CrI], 85-345) cases of IMD among US adolescents 11 to 15 years of age and 328 (95% CrI, 164-646) cases of IMD among those aged 16 to 23 years. Absent vaccination, the cumulative incidence of IMD in these age groups would have been at least 59% higher than reported over the same period with vaccination. Using case fatality rates of unvaccinated individuals derived from national data, vaccination averted an estimated 16 (95% CrI, 8-31) deaths among adolescents aged 11 to 15 years and 38 (95% CrI, 19-75) deaths among those aged 16 to 23 years. Conclusions and Relevance: This decision analytical model suggests that the MenACWY vaccination program in the US was associated with a reduced burden of meningococcal disease. Without vaccination, the incidence rates per 100 000 adolescents and young adults would have been substantially higher than those observed during the vaccine era.

Indexed as

Meningococcal InfectionsMeningococcal VaccinesVaccines, ConjugateAdolescentAdultBayes TheoremFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleUnited StatesYoung AdultMenACWYMeningococcal VaccinesVaccines, Conjugate

Identifiers

PMID39504021
PMCPMC11541638

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.