Leveraging genomic prediction to surpass current yield gains in spring barley.

key messageGenetic gain in Nordic spring barley varieties was estimated to 1.07% per year. Additionally, genomic predictive ability for yield was 0.61 in a population of breeding lines. Barley is one of the most important crops in Europe and meeting the growing demand for food and feed requires continuous increase in yield. Genomic prediction (GP) has the potential to be a cost-efficient tool in breeding for complex traits; however, the rate of yield improvement in current barley varieties is unknown. This study therefore investigated historical and current genetic gains in spring barley and how accounting for row-type population stratification in a breeding population influences GP results. The genetic gain in yield was estimated using historical data from field trials from 2014 to 2022, with 22-60 market varieties grown yearly. The genetic gain was estimated to 1.07% per year for all varieties, serving as a reference point for future breeding progress. To analyse the potential of using GP in spring barley a population of 375 breeding lines of two-row and six-row barley were tested in multi-environment trials in 2019-2022. The genetic diversity of the row-types was examined and used as a factor in the predictions, and the potential to predict untested locations using yield data from other locations was explored. This resulted in an overall predictive ability of 0.61 for yield (kg/ha), with 0.57 and 0.19 for the separate two-row and the six-row breeding lines, respectively. Together this displays the potential of implementing GP in breeding programs and the genetic gain in spring barley market varieties developed through GP will help in quantifying the benefit of GP over conventional breeding in the future.