ArticleChina CDC weekly2024
Impact of COVID-19 Interventions on Respiratory and Intestinal Infectious Disease Notifications - Jiangsu Province, China, 2020-2023.
Article in China CDC weekly, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Long-term epidemiological patterns of pediatric infectious diseases in an urban district of Shanghai, 2015-2023.Frontiers in pediatrics · 2026Article
- Identifying the irrationality of the diagnosis of "pertussis-like syndrome" to enhance diagnostic accuracy.Microbiology spectrum · 2025Article
- Impact of the health insurance deregulation policy for cross-regional healthcare on hospitalization visits and expenses of patients with ischemic heart disease: an interrupted time series analysis.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Introduction: Many measures implemented to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have reshaped the epidemic patterns of other infectious diseases. This study estimated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases and potential changes following reopening. Methods: The optimal intervention and counterfactual models were selected from the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), neural network autoregression (NNAR), and hybrid models based on the minimum mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in the test set. The relative change rate between the actual notification rate and that predicted by the optimal model was calculated for the entire COVID-19 epidemic prevention period and the "reopening" period. Results: Compared with the predicted notification rate based on the counterfactual model, the total relative change rates for the 9 infectious diseases were -44.24%, respiratory infections (-55.41%), and intestinal infections (-26.59%) during 2020-2022. Compared with the predicted notification rate based on the intervention model, the total relative change rates were +247.98%, respiratory infections (+389.59%), and intestinal infections (+50.46%) in 2023. Among them, the relative increases in influenza (+499.98%) and hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) (+70.97%) were significant. Conclusions: Measures taken in Jiangsu Province in response to COVID-19 effectively constrained the spread of respiratory and intestinal infectious diseases. Influenza and HFMD rebounded significantly after the lifting of COVID-19 intervention restrictions.
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