ArticleInfluenza and other respiratory viruses2024
Measures of Population Immunity Can Predict the Dominant Clade of Influenza A (H3N2) in the 2017-2018 Season and Reveal Age-Associated Differences in Susceptibility and Antibody-Binding Specificity.
Article in Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 19 papers.
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19 citing papers in PubMed.
- Near real-time data on the human neutralizing antibody landscape to influenza virus in summer of 2026 shows antigenic advance of H3N2 subclade K region D mutants and H1N1 D.3.1.1 Sa mutants.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- CAPYBARA: A generalizable framework for predicting serological measurements across human cohorts.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Article
- High-throughput neutralization measurements correlate strongly with evolutionary success of human influenza strains.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Near real-time data on the human neutralizing antibody landscape to influenza virus to inform vaccine-strain selection in September 2025.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Competition between transmission lineages mediated by human mobility shapes seasonal influenza epidemics in the US.Nature communications · 2025Article
- SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibody specificities differ dramatically between recently infected infants and immune-imprinted individuals.Journal of virology · 2025Article
- SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibody specificities differ dramatically between recently infected infants and immune-imprinted individuals.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2025Article
- Near real-time data on the human neutralizing antibody landscape to influenza virus to inform vaccine-strain selection in September 2025.Virus evolution · 2025Article
- Concepts and methods for predicting viral evolution.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2024Article
- Article
- High-throughput sequencing-based neutralization assay reveals how repeated vaccinations impact titers to recent human H1N1 influenza strains.Journal of virology · 2024Article
- Age-dependent heterogeneity in the antigenic effects of mutations to influenza hemagglutinin.Cell host & microbe · 2024Article
- Article
- A speed limit on serial strain replacement from original antigenic sin.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024Article
- A speed limit on serial strain replacement from original antigenic sin.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2024Article
- High-throughput sequencing-based neutralization assay reveals how repeated vaccinations impact titers to recent human H1N1 influenza strains.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2024Article
- Age-dependent heterogeneity in the antigenic effects of mutations to influenza hemagglutinin.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2023Article
- Full-spike deep mutational scanning helps predict the evolutionary success of SARS-CoV-2 clades.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2023Article
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Abstract
backgroundFor antigenically variable pathogens such as influenza, strain fitness is partly determined by the relative availability of hosts susceptible to infection with that strain compared with others. Antibodies to the hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) confer substantial protection against influenza infection. We asked if a cross-sectional antibody-derived estimate of population susceptibility to different clades of influenza A (H3N2) could predict the success of clades in the following season.
methodsWe collected sera from 483 healthy individuals aged 1 to 90 years in the summer of 2017 and analyzed neutralizing responses to the HA and NA of representative strains using focus reduction neutralization tests (FNRT) and enzyme-linked lectin assays (ELLA). We estimated relative population-average and age-specific susceptibilities to circulating viral clades and compared those estimates to changes in clade frequencies in the following 2017-2018 season.
resultsThe clade to which neutralizing antibody titers were lowest, indicating greater population susceptibility, dominated the next season. Titer correlations between viral strains varied by age, suggesting age-associated differences in epitope targeting driven by shared past exposures. Yet substantial unexplained variation remains within age groups.
conclusionsThis study indicates how representative measures of population immunity might improve evolutionary forecasts and inform selective pressures on influenza.
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