Trial reportBreast cancer research : BCR2024
Prediction of menstrual recovery patterns in premenopausal women with breast cancer taking tamoxifen after chemotherapy: an ASTRRA Substudy.
Trial report in Breast cancer research : BCR, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Recovery of ovarian function after chemotherapy in premenopausal women with breast cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Breast cancer research and treatment · 2026Pooled it
- Anticancer Potential of Cherry Extracts and Major Flavonols: Focus on Quercetin and Kaempferol Molecular Mechanisms in Breast Cancer.International journal of molecular sciences · 2026Review
- Algorithmic Prognostication in Female Oncofertility Counseling: Ethical Challenges of Bias, Autonomy, and Predictive Uncertainty.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Article
- Development of a Machine Learning Model for Predicting Treatment-Related Amenorrhea in Young Women with Breast Cancer.Bioengineering (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
20 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundChemo-endocrine therapy can lead to various side effects associated with ovarian dysfunction. Predicting menstrual recovery is necessary to discuss the treatment-related issues regarding fertility and premature menopause with patients.
methodsIn the ASTRRA trial, patients who resumed ovarian function within 2 years after chemotherapy were randomized to receive tamoxifen for 5 years or OFS with tamoxifen for 2 years. With these 1298 patients, we developed a model that predicts when menstrual recovery will occur within a 3-year period after chemotherapy using variables including age, body mass index, chemotherapy regimen and duration, and serum estradiol and follicle-stimulating hormone levels.
resultsThe data of 957 patients were used to develop the prediction model, and those of 341 patients were used for validation. In the development group, menstruation resumed in 450 patients (47.0%) within 5 years. In multivariable analysis, younger age (< 35 vs. 45, HR 7.85, 95% CI 4.63-13.30, p < 0.0001), anthracycline-based chemotherapy without taxane (vs. with taxane, HR 1.81, 95% CI 1.37-2.38, p < 0.0001), and chemotherapy duration (≤ 90 days vs. > 90 days, HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.01-1.72, p = 0.045) correlated with menstrual recovery. Using combined age, regimen, and duration of chemotherapy, we developed a simplified scoring system to estimate recovery chances and used a concordance index of 0.679 overall and 0.744 at 3 years for validation.
conclusionThis model predicted timing and probability of menstrual recovery, based on their individual age, type and duration of chemotherapy in premenopausal women diagnosed with breast cancer who received tamoxifen after chemotherapy.
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