Broad-scale predictions of herpetofauna occupancy and colonization in an agriculturally dominated landscape.

Predictions of species occurrence allow land managers to focus conservation efforts on locations where species are most likely to occur. Such analyses are rare for herpetofauna compared to other taxa, despite increasing evidence that herptile populations are declining because of landcover change and habitat fragmentation. Our objective was to create predictions of occupancy and colonization probabilities for 15 herptiles of greatest conservation need in Iowa. From 2006-2014, we surveyed 295 properties throughout Iowa for herptile presence using timed visual-encounter surveys, coverboards, and aquatic traps. Data were analyzed using robust design occupancy modeling with landscape-level covariates. Occupancy ranged from 0.01 (95% CI = -0.01, 0.03) for prairie ringneck snake (Diadophis punctatus arnyi) to 0.90 (95% CI = 0.898, 0.904) for northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens). Occupancy for most species correlated to landscape features at the 1-km scale. General patterns of species' occupancy included negative effects of agricultural features and positive effects of water features on turtles and frogs. Colonization probabilities ranged from 0.007 (95% CI = 0.006, 0.008) for spiny softshell turtle (Apalone spinifera) to 0.82 (95% CI = 0.62, 1.0) for western fox snake (Pantherophis ramspotti). Colonization probabilities for most species were best explained by effects of water and grassland landscape features. Predictive models had strong support (AUC > 0.70) for six out of 15 species (40%), including all three turtles studied. Our results provide estimates of occupancy and colonization probabilities and spatial predictions of occurrence for herptiles of greatest conservation need across the state of Iowa.