ArticleIsrael journal of health policy research2024
A prediction model of PTSD in the Israeli population in the aftermath of october 7th, 2023, terrorist attack and the Israel-Hamas war.
Article in Israel journal of health policy research, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed.
- Nation under pressure: examining widespread trauma exposure and resilience in Israel.European journal of psychotraumatology · 2026Article
- Mental health and self-compassion in military couples during wartime.Psychological trauma : theory, research, practice and policy · 2026Article
- Media News Engagement and Parent-Child Well-being during Regional Conflict: A Daily Diary Study.Research on child and adolescent psychopathology · 2026Article
- Two years into an ongoing war: a six-wave prospective study of PTSD, depression, anxiety, and posttraumatic growth following the October 7, 2023, attack in Israel.EClinicalMedicine · 2026Article
- Circadian instability following mass trauma predicts PTSD risk.Translational psychiatry · 2026Article
- The intention to adopt mental mHealth services in emergencies: pre-engagement social determinants of PTSD-Coach app use.Frontiers in digital health · 2026Article
- Mental health distress and associated factors among online CBT service users during the Iron Swords War.Frontiers in psychology · 2026Article
- Peer mentorship for physically injured veterans in healthcare settings during ongoing military conflict: benefits and barriers.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Gendered networks of psychological adaptation under prolonged war.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Medical cannabis in Israel: a comprehensive review of trends and regulations, 2011-2025.Journal of cannabis research · 2025Article
- The Impact of Acute National Stress on Awake Bruxism Behaviour Among Young Adults-An Ecological Momentary Assessment Study.Journal of oral rehabilitation · 2025Article
- Professional and service-user perspectives regarding the future of mental healthcare in Israel.Israel journal of health policy research · 2025Article
- Providing emergency mental health support to Israeli civilians evacuated from their homes following the events of October 7th, 2023.Israel journal of health policy research · 2025Article
- Adolescents during wartime: Vulnerability-based profiles.Journal of research on adolescence : the official journal of the Society for Research on Adolescence · 2025Article
- The Roles of Dissociation and Depression in PTSD Among Soldiers Exposed to Combat.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025Article
- Israeli mental health in the aftermath of the October 7 terrorist attack: risks, challenges, and recommendations.Israel journal of health policy research · 2025Review
- Nurses during war: Profiles-based risk and protective factors.Journal of nursing scholarship : an official publication of Sigma Theta Tau International Honor Society of Nursing · 2025Article
- Postpartum Mothers' Mental Health in a Conflict-Affected Region: A Cross-Sectional Study of Emotion Regulation and Social Support.Journal of clinical medicine · 2025Article
- War impact on mental health and well-being among Ukrainian and Israeli women: A cross-national comparison.Global mental health (Cambridge, England) · 2025Article
- Resilience and coping during protracted conflict: a comparative analysis of general and evacuees populations.Israel journal of health policy research · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundOn October 7th, 2023, a mass terror attack was launched by Hamas militants, which was followed by the Israel-Hamas war. These events constitute a nationwide trauma with major ramifications for public mental health. This article presents an evidence-based model for the prediction of the prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) related to the terrorist attack and the war. MAIN BODY: The creation of the model consisted of several steps. Firstly, the Israeli population was divided into six groups based on the intensity, context, and type of traumatic exposure (direct exposure to terror, close proximity to terror, soldiers in combat and support units, intense exposure to rocket attacks, moderate exposure to rocket attacks, and indirectly affected communities), and the population size of each group was assessed using official national databases. Secondly, an estimation of the expected prevalence of PTSD in each of the exposure groups was based on a review of the relevant literature. A random-effects meta-analysis of the prevalence rates was conducted separately per each exposure group. Finally, the predicted number of PTSD causalities in the population was calculated by multiplying the group size and the PTSD prevalence estimation. Based on population size and estimated PTSD prevalence within each exposure category, the model predicts that approximately 5.3% (N = 519,923) of the Israeli population (95% confidence interval, 1.64-9%), may develop PTSD as a result of the terrorist attack and the war.
conclusionsThe predicted number of individuals with PTSD following mass trauma is expected to be considerable. The presented model can assist policymakers, clinicians, and researchers in preparing and devising adequate interventions for the mental health needs of large populations. Moreover, this model can be applied in other instances of mass-trauma exposure.
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