Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39472049›Full record

ArticleTobacco control2026

Transformation of the tobacco product market in Japan, 2011-2023.

K Michael Cummings, Avery Roberson, David T Levy, Rafael Meza, Kenneth E Warner, Geoffrey T Fong, Steve Shaowei Xu, Shannon Gravely, Bibha Dhungel, Ron Borland and 3 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Tobacco control, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Recent Trends in Cigarette and HTP Use in Japan: A Scoping Review.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2026
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

K Michael CummingsDepartment of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, South Carolina, USA cummingk@musc.edu.ORCID 0000-0002-7103-7017
Avery RobersonDepartment of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, South Carolina, USA.
David T LevyLombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University, Washinton, District of Columbia, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5280-3612
Rafael MezaDepartment of Integrative Oncology, BC Cancer Research Institute, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
Kenneth E WarnerDepartment of Health Management and Policy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-8214-1776
Geoffrey T FongDepartment of Psychology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.
Steve Shaowei XuDepartment of Psychology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.
Shannon GravelyDepartment of Psychology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.ORCID 0000-0001-5224-9105
Bibha DhungelThe University of Melbourne School of Psychological Sciences, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-0014-8385
Ron BorlandThe University of Melbourne School of Psychological Sciences, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.ORCID 0000-0003-0059-178X
Richard J O'ConnorDepartment of Health Behavior, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0644-182X
Maciej Lukasz GoniewiczDepartment of Health Behavior, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, New York, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-6748-3068
David T SweanorFaculty of Law, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.

Funding

Translational Science Laboratory Shared ResourceP30CA138313 · NCI · MEDICAL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA · PI John J Lemasters · 2009 to 2026
$42.7M
Vaporized Nicotine Product Initiation Among Youth in the US, Canada, and England: Methods to Predict Uptake and Policy EfficacyP01CA200512 · NCI · MEDICAL UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH CAROLINA · PI FONG, GEOFFREY T · 2016 to 2025
$25.3M
NCI NIH HHS P01 CA200512NCI NIH HHS P30 CA138313
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveThis study updates a previous paper that examined trends in the sale of cigarettes and heated tobacco products (HTPs) in Japan between 2011 and part way through 2019. The current study includes complete unit sales data through 2023.

methodsData on cigarette and HTP sales were obtained from public sources available from the websites and stockholder reports for the Tobacco Institute of Japan, Philip Morris International and Japan Tobacco. We used joinpoint regression using the parametric method to test for trends in both per capita and total sales for the three outcome variables assessed between 2011 and 2023: (1) cigarette sales, (2) HTP sales and (3) combined cigarette and HTP sales. Joinpoint regression identifies changes in trends and estimates the annual per cent change (APC) for each trend segment.

resultsBetween 2011 and 2023, per capita and total cigarette sales declined by 52.6% and 52.7%, respectively. From 2011 to 2015, per capita cigarette sales in Japan decreased -1.5% APC; from 2015 to 2018, the decline accelerated to -10.5% APC and continued to fall -7.3% APC between 2018 and 2023. Between 2016 and 2018, per capita HTP sales increased by 149.0% APC, and since 2018, they have increased by 8.1% APC.

conclusionWhile many factors may account for the decreased sale of cigarettes in Japan over the past 12 years, the increased sale of HTPs appears to be a factor.

Indexed as

CommerceTobacco IndustryTobacco ProductsHumansJapanEconomicsNicotinePreventionPublic policyTobacco industry

Identifiers

PMID39472049
PMCPMC12037862

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.