ArticleScientific reports2024
Predictions of species distributions based only on models estimating future climate change are not reliable.
Article in Scientific reports, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Future of high mountain endemic species under climate change: predicting the potential scenarios for Stellaria pulvinata in the Altai Mountains.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Projected compositional reorganization of Southern plant assemblages in South Korea under climate scenarios using species distribution models.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Migrating in a Warming World: A Deep Learning Approach to Predict Pan-American Seasonal Shifts in the Monarch Butterfly Niche.Global change biology · 2026Article
- Updated chorology, habitat ecology, conservation assessment and habitat suitability ofFrontiers in plant science · 2026Article
- Regional land use and land-use intensity effects on vertebrate biodiversity across Europe identified using species distribution models.Landscape ecology · 2026Article
- Distribution Pattern of EndangeredPlants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Global Species Diversity Patterns of Polypodiaceae Under Future Climate Changes.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Factors Influencing Orchid Species Richness in the Central Balkans: The Importance of Belowground Organ Types.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Does Reproductive Success in Orchids Affect the Evolution of Their Number of Flowers?Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Changes in climate and land use are the most often mentioned factors responsible for the current decline in species diversity. To reduce the effect of these factors, we need reliable predictions of future species distributions. This is usually done by utilizing species distribution models (SDMs) based on expected climate. Here we explore the accuracy of such projections: we use orchid (Orchidaceae) recordings and environmental (mainly climatic) data from the years 1901-1950 in SDMs to predict maps of potential species distributions in 1980-2014. This should enable us to compare the predictions of species distributions in 1980-2014, based on records of species distribution in the years 1901-1950, with real data in the 1980-2014 period. We found that the predictions of the SDMs often differ from reality in this experiment. The results clearly indicate that SDM predictions of future species distributions as a reaction to climate change must be treated with caution.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.