Modeling the seasonal wildfire cycle and its possible effects on the distribution of focal species in Kermanshah Province, western Iran.

Predicting environmental disturbances and evaluating their potential impacts on the habitats of various plant and animal species is a suitable strategy for guiding conservation efforts. Wildfires are a type of disturbance that can affect many aspects of an ecosystem and its species. Therefore, through the integration of spatial models and species distribution models (SDMs), we can make informed predictions of the occurrence of such phenomena and their potential impacts. This study focused on five focal species, namely, the brown bear (Ursus arctos), wild goat (Capra aegagrus), wild sheep (Ovis orientalis), wildcat (Felis silvestris), and striped hyena (Hyaena hyaena). This study used MODIS active fire data and ensemble machine learning methods to model the risk of wildfire occurrence in 2023 for spring, summer, and autumn separately. This study also investigated the suitability of habitats for focal species via SDMs. The predicted probability maps for wildfire risk and habitat suitability were converted to binary values via the true skill statistic (TSS) threshold. The overlap of the habitat suitability map and wildfire occurrence areas was analyzed via GAP analysis. The area prone to fire in spring, summer and winter is equal to 9077.32; 10,199.83 and 13,723.49 KM2 were calculated, which indicates an increase in wildfire risk. Proximity to roads is one of the most important factors affecting the possible effects of wildfires in all seasons. Most fire occurrences are concentrated on agricultural lands, which, when integrated with other land use types, have wildfire potential in all seasons. The use of fire to destroy agricultural residues is a critical factor in the occurrence of wildfires. The distribution range of each focal species is considered the most important component of fire susceptibility. Hence, the suitable habitat for Hyaena hyaena in spring, summer, and autumn, with areas of 5.257, 5.856, and 6.889 km2 respectively, is the most affected by the possibility of fire. In contrast, these areas have the lowest values for Ovis orientalis, with 162, 127, and 396 km2 respectively. Therefore, species that are dependent on human-based ecosystems have the highest vulnerability to wildfire. Conservation efforts should focus on familiarizing farmers with methods of destroying agricultural residues as well as the consequences of intentional fires. The findings of this study can be used to mitigate the negative impacts of wildfire and protect the habitat of focal species.