Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39466727›Full record

ArticlePLoS computational biology2024

Best practices for estimating and reporting epidemiological delay distributions of infectious diseases.

Kelly Charniga, Sang Woo Park, Andrei R Akhmetzhanov, Anne Cori, Jonathan Dushoff, Sebastian Funk, Katelyn M Gostic, Natalie M Linton, Adrian Lison, Christopher E Overton and 4 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PLoS computational biology, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  6. Viruses · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

14 authors.

Kelly CharnigaMathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, CNRS UMR 2000, Paris, France.ORCID 0000-0002-7648-7041
Sang Woo ParkDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America.
Andrei R AkhmetzhanovCollege of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
Anne CoriMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom.
Jonathan DushoffDepartments of Mathematics & Statistics and Biology, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.
Sebastian FunkDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
Katelyn M GosticCenter for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.
Natalie M LintonGraduate School of Medicine, Hokkaido University, Sapporo-shi, Hokkaido, Japan.
Adrian LisonDepartment of Biosystems Science and Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-6822-8437
Christopher E OvertonDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom.
Juliet R C PulliamCenter for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.ORCID 0000-0003-3314-8223
Thomas WardAll Hazards Intelligence, Infectious Disease Modelling Team, Data Analytics and Surveillance, UK Health Security Agency, United Kingdom.
Simon CauchemezMathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, CNRS UMR 2000, Paris, France.
Sam AbbottDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Epidemiological delays are key quantities that inform public health policy and clinical practice. They are used as inputs for mathematical and statistical models, which in turn can guide control strategies. In recent work, we found that censoring, right truncation, and dynamical bias were rarely addressed correctly when estimating delays and that these biases were large enough to have knock-on impacts across a large number of use cases. Here, we formulate a checklist of best practices for estimating and reporting epidemiological delays. We also provide a flowchart to guide practitioners based on their data. Our examples are focused on the incubation period and serial interval due to their importance in outbreak response and modeling, but our recommendations are applicable to other delays. The recommendations, which are based on the literature and our experience estimating epidemiological delay distributions during outbreak responses, can help improve the robustness and utility of reported estimates and provide guidance for the evaluation of estimates for downstream use in transmission models or other analyses.

Indexed as

Communicable DiseasesDisease OutbreaksComputational BiologyEpidemiological ModelsHumansModels, Statistical

Identifiers

PMID39466727
PMCPMC11516000

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.