Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39465996›Full record

SynthesisEuropean journal of clinical investigation2025

Diabetes and the risk of cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality among older adults: an individual participant data analysis of five prospective studies.

Valerie Aponte Ribero, Orestis Efthimiou, Nazanin Abolhassani, Heba Alwan, Douglas C Bauer, Séverine Henrard, Antoine Christiaens, Denis O'Mahony, Wilma Knol, Mike J L Peters and 6 more

Abstract readMeta-Analysis
In one paragraph

Synthesis in European journal of clinical investigation, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

16 authors.

Valerie Aponte RiberoInstitute of Primary Health Care (BIHAM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0034-0182
Orestis EfthimiouInstitute of Primary Health Care (BIHAM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Nazanin AbolhassaniInstitute of Primary Health Care (BIHAM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Heba AlwanInstitute of Primary Health Care (BIHAM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Douglas C BauerDepartment of Medicine and Epidemiology & Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, California, USA.
Séverine HenrardClinical Pharmacy research group, Louvain Drug Research Institute (LDRI), Université catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium.
Antoine ChristiaensClinical Pharmacy research group, Louvain Drug Research Institute (LDRI), Université catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium.
Denis O'MahonySchool of Medicine, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland.
Wilma KnolDepartment of Geriatric Medicine and Expertise Centre Pharmacotherapy in Old Persons, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands.
Mike J L PetersDepartment of Geriatric Medicine and Expertise Centre Pharmacotherapy in Old Persons, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands.
Arnaud ChioleroInstitute of Primary Health Care (BIHAM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Drahomir AujeskyDepartment of General Internal Medicine, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Gérard WaeberDepartment of Medicine, Lausanne University Hospital (CHUV), University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
Nicolas RodondiInstitute of Primary Health Care (BIHAM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Cinzia Del GiovaneInstitute of Primary Health Care (BIHAM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Baris GencerInstitute of Primary Health Care (BIHAM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.

Funding

HRS Yrs29-34: Y33 SSA CoFundingU01AG009740 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI Jessica Faul, KENNETH M LANGA · 1990 to 2026
$555.8M
Understanding and Improving Healthcare Decision-Making and Outcomes for People Living with Alzheimer's Disease and Related DementiasP01AG005842 · NIA · NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH · PI Timothy Layton, KOSALI ILAYPERUMA SIMON · 1986 to 2026
$56.5M
WEALTH DISPARITIES AMONG MATURE AND OLDER ADULTSP01AG008291 · NIA · RAND CORPORATION · PI HURD, MICHAEL D · 1989 to 2018
$19.4M
RAND CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF AGINGP30AG012815 · NIA · RAND CORPORATION · PI HURD, MICHAEL D · 1999 to 2020
$13.7M
Peripheral Nerve Function Decline in an Aged CohortR01AG028050 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI STROTMEYER, ELSA S. · 2007 to 2015
$3.5M
End of Life in the Very OldR01NR012459 · NINR · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI ALBERT, STEVEN M, LUNNEY, JUNE R · 2011 to 2015
$2.7M
Enhancing the Comparability of SHARE with HRS and ELSAR01AG052527 · NIA · MAX PLANCK INST/SOCIAL LAW/SOCIAL POLICY · PI BOERSCH-SUPAN, AXEL H · 2016 to 2020
$2.1M
DYNAMICS OF HEALTH .AGING . AND BODY COMPOSITION /Pittsburgh/-260962101N01AG062101 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · 1996 to 2004
$996k
DYNAMICS OF HEALTH . AGING . AND BODY COMPOSITION /Memphis/-26062103N01AG062103 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE HEALTH SCI CTR · 1996 to 2004
$793k
DEVELOPING AN ISRAELI VERSION OF THE HRS/SHARE PROJECTR21AG025169 · NIA · HEBREW UNIVERSITY OF JERUSALEM · PI LITWIN, HOWARD · 2004 to 2006
$297k
HEALTH ABC--COORDINATING UNIT /California/-260062106N01AG062106 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SAN FRANCISCO · 1996 to 2004
$109k
CARE AND ADJUSTMENT OF ELDERLY BREAST CANCER PATIENTSR01AG005252 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI THREATT, BARBARA A · 1985 to 1985
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Bundesministerium für Bildung und ForschungDirectorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion 2015/0195Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion 2016/0135Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion 2018/0285Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion 2019/0332Directorate-General for Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion 2020/0313Directorate-General for Research and Innovation 211909Directorate-General for Research and Innovation 227822Directorate-General for Research and Innovation 261982Directorate-General for Research and Innovation 283646Directorate-General for Research and Innovation CIT4-CT-2006-028812Directorate-General for Research and Innovation CIT5-CT-2005-028857Directorate-General for Research and Innovation QLK6-CT-2001-00360Directorate-General for Research and Innovation RII-CT-2006-062193Faculty of Biology and Medicine of LausanneGlaxoSmithKlineHorizon 2020 Framework Programme 101015924Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 6342388Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 654221Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 676536Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 823782Horizon 2020 Framework Programme 870628Max-Planck-GesellschaftNIA NIH HHS HHSN271201300071CNIA NIH HHS IAG_BSR06-11NIA NIH HHS N01-AG-6-2101NIA NIH HHS N01-AG-6-2103NIA NIH HHS N01-AG-6-2106NIA NIH HHS OGHA_04-064NIA NIH HHS P01_AG005842NIA NIH HHS P01_AG08291NIA NIH HHS P30_AG12815NIA NIH HHS R01 AG028050NIA NIH HHS R01-AG028050NIA NIH HHS R01 AG052527NIA NIH HHS R21_AG025169NIA NIH HHS RAG052527ANIA NIH HHS U01 AG009740NIA NIH HHS U01AG009740NIA NIH HHS U01_AG09740-13S2NIA NIH HHS Y1-AG-4553-01NINR NIH HHS R01 NR012459Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung 320030_188549/01Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung 32003B_207881Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung 3200B0-105993Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung 3200B0-118308Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung 325130_204361 / 1Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung 33CS30-139468Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung 33CS30-148401Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung 33CS30_177535Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung 33CSCO-122661Staatssekretariat für Bildung, Forschung und Innovation 15.0137
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundGuidelines and studies provide conflicting information on whether type 2 diabetes (T2D) should be considered a coronary heart disease risk (CHD) equivalent in older adults.

methodsWe synthesized participant-level data on 82,723 individuals aged ≥65 years from five prospective studies in two-stage meta-analyses. We estimated multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of T2D (presence versus absence) on a primary composite outcome defined as cardiovascular events or all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were the components of the composite. We evaluated CHD risk equivalence by comparing outcomes between individuals with T2D but no CHD versus CHD but no T2D.

resultsThe median age of participants was 71 years, 20% had T2D and 17% had CHD at baseline. A total of 29,474 participants (36%) experienced the composite outcome. Baseline T2D was associated with higher risk of cardiovascular events or all-cause mortality versus no T2D (HR 1.44, 95% CI [1.40-1.49]). The association was weaker in individuals aged ≥75 years versus 65-74 years (HR 1.32 [1.19-1.46] vs. 1.56 [1.50-1.62]; p-value for interaction = .032). Compared to individuals with CHD but no T2D, individuals with T2D but no CHD had a similar risk of the composite outcome (HR 0.95 [0.85-1.07]), but a lower risk of cardiovascular events (HR 0.76 [0.59-0.98]).

conclusionsT2D was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in older adults, but T2D without CHD conferred lower risk of cardiovascular events compared to CHD without T2D. Our results suggest that T2D should not be considered a CHD risk equivalent in older adults.

Indexed as

Cardiovascular DiseasesCoronary DiseaseDiabetes Mellitus, Type 2AgedAged, 80 and overCause of DeathFemaleHumansMaleProportional Hazards ModelsProspective StudiesRisk Factorsall‐cause mortalitycardiovascular diseasecoronary heart diseasediabetes

Identifiers

PMID39465996
PMCPMC11744924

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.