ArticleDigestive and liver disease : official journal of the Italian Society of Gastroenterology and the Italian Association for the Study of the Liver2025
Clinical and imaging predictors for the development of diabetes mellitus following a single episode of acute pancreatitis in youth.
Article in Digestive and liver disease : official journal of the Italian Society of Gastroenterology and the Italian Association for the Study of the Liver, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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2 citing papers in PubMed.
- The Metabolic Legacy of Acute Pancreatitis: Post-Pancreatitis Diabetes Mellitus.Clinical and experimental gastroenterology · 2026Review
- Combining MRI dual-sequence radiomics and clinical parameters predicts post-hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis diabetes mellitus.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2026Article
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11 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundAcute pancreatitis (AP) increases the risk of diabetes mellitus (DM). Our aim was to identify clinical, laboratory and imaging predictors of preDM/DM in youth post index AP.
methodsThis was a prospective cohort study of patients ≤21 years-old with an index admission for AP and follow up at 3 and/or 12 months. Clinical laboratory values, imaging findings, admission course, and plasma chemokine and cytokine measures collected at index admission were tested for association with preDM/DM development. A multivariable regression model was used to predict preDM/DM.
resultsAmong 187 enrolled participants, 137 (73 %) and 144 (77 %) underwent DM screening at 3 and 12 months respectively, and 137 (73 %) had imaging available. PreDM/DM occurred in 22/137 (16 %; preDM n = 21, DM n = 1) at 3 months and 23/144 (16 %; preDM n = 18, DM n = 5) participants at 12 months. Univariate associations with preDM/DM at 12 months included: severe AP (SAP) (52 % preDM/DM vs. 17 % no DM; p = 0.0008), median [IQR] IL-6 (910 pg/ml [618-3438] vs. 196 pg/ml [71-480], p < 0.05) and CRP (4.16 mg/L [1.67-10.7] vs. 1.55 mg/L [0.4-3.68], p = 0.1) at time of AP attack. The optimal multivariable model to predict preDM/DM included with clinical variables was severe acute pancreatitis (SAP), c reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and age [AUC = 0.80; (0.70, 0.88)]. Including imaging markers, the ideal model included SAP, CRP, IL-6, subcutaneous fat area, age and presence of autoimmune disease with an AUC [0.82 (0.71, 0.90)].
conclusionsDevelopment of preDM/DM following an index AP episode can be predicted by baseline AP severity, baseline CRP, IL-6 levels, and subcutaneous fat area.
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