Under which conditions do extreme events support a paradigm shift? Studying focusing events during two centuries of Swiss flood risk management.

Extreme weather events affect many areas around the world. How a country or region reacts to it can take many forms. In this article, we concentrate on policy responses, as typically found in laws, acts, or strategies. Recent research in climate change adaptation or environmental governance concluded that the degree of severity of extreme events is a crucial indicator that policy action should be taken. The event alone is a necessary, but insufficient condition for policies to be introduced. In this context, we ask: Which conditions must be at stake so that an extreme event is able to deploy its focal power and induce policy introduction or change? To answer this question, we studied more than two centuries of flood risk management in Switzerland. We relied on qualitative and quantitative data, as well as process tracing techniques, to relate event characteristics, media, political, and policy contexts to policy change in flood risk management. Results indicate that two conditions made floods turn into focusing events and support paradigm shift: high economic damage and a policy subsystem's actor constellation favorable to change. We are convinced that our results are also replicable for other natural disasters and other countries than only Switzerland. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-024-02316-2.