Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39448915›Full record

ArticleBMC infectious diseases2024

A conceptual health state diagram for modelling the transmission of a (re)emerging infectious respiratory disease in a human population.

Marc Avramov, Vanessa Gabriele-Rivet, Rachael M Milwid, Victoria Ng, Nicholas H Ogden, Valerie Hongoh

Abstract readLetter
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Marc AvramovDepartment of Biology, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, ON, K1S 5B6, Canada.
Vanessa Gabriele-RivetPublic Health Risk Sciences Division, Scientific Operations and Response, National Microbiology Laboratory Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, 3200 Rue Sicotte, C.P. 5000, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, J2S 2M2, Canada.
Rachael M MilwidPublic Health Risk Sciences Division, Scientific Operations and Response, National Microbiology Laboratory Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, 3200 Rue Sicotte, C.P. 5000, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, J2S 2M2, Canada.
Victoria NgPublic Health Risk Sciences Division, Scientific Operations and Response, National Microbiology Laboratory Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, 3200 Rue Sicotte, C.P. 5000, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, J2S 2M2, Canada.
Nicholas H OgdenPublic Health Risk Sciences Division, Scientific Operations and Response, National Microbiology Laboratory Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, 3200 Rue Sicotte, C.P. 5000, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, J2S 2M2, Canada.
Valerie HongohPublic Health Risk Sciences Division, Scientific Operations and Response, National Microbiology Laboratory Branch, Public Health Agency of Canada, 3200 Rue Sicotte, C.P. 5000, Saint-Hyacinthe, QC, J2S 2M2, Canada. valerie.hongoh@phac-aspc.gc.ca.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Mathematical modelling of (re)emerging infectious respiratory diseases among humans poses multiple challenges for modellers, which can arise as a result of limited data and surveillance, uncertainty in the natural history of the disease, as well as public health and individual responses to outbreaks. Here, we propose a COVID-19-inspired health state diagram (HSD) to serve as a foundational framework for conceptualising the modelling process for (re)emerging respiratory diseases, and public health responses, in the early stages of their emergence. The HSD aims to serve as a starting point for reflection on the structure and parameterisation of a transmission model to assess the impact of the (re)emerging disease and the capacity of public health interventions to control transmission. We also explore the adaptability of the HSD to different (re)emerging diseases using the characteristics of three respiratory diseases of historical public health importance. We outline key questions to contemplate when applying and adapting this HSD to (re)emerging infectious diseases and provide reflections on adapting the framework for public health-related interventions.

Indexed as

Communicable Diseases, EmergingCOVID-19HumansModels, TheoreticalPublic HealthRespiratory Tract InfectionsSARS-CoV-2Emerging diseaseEpidemicMathematical modellingPandemicReemerging disease

Identifiers

PMID39448915
PMCPMC11515510

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.