Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39440677›Full record

ArticleInfluenza and other respiratory viruses2024

Extrapolating Sentinel Surveillance Information to Estimate National COVID Hospital Admission Rates: A Bayesian Modeling Approach.

Owen Devine, Huong Pham, Betsy Gunnels, Heather E Reese, Molly Steele, Alexia Couture, Danielle Iuliano, Darpun Sachdev, Nisha B Alden, James Meek and 12 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Influenza and other respiratory viruses, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Observational
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

22 authors.

Owen DevineEagle Global Scientific, LLC, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.ORCID 0009-0008-3120-2840
Huong PhamCDC, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Betsy GunnelsCDC, Global Health Center, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Heather E ReeseCDC, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Molly SteeleCDC, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Alexia CoutureCDC, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Danielle IulianoCDC, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8742-3687
Darpun SachdevCalifornia Department of Public Health, Richmond, California, USA.
Nisha B AldenColorado Department of Public Health & Environment, Denver, Colorado, USA.
James MeekConnecticut Emerging Infections Program, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.
Lucy WittDivision of Infectious Diseases, Emory University School of Medicine, Georgia Emerging Infections Program, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1475-6952
Patricia A RyanMaryland Department of Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Libby ReegMichigan Department of Health and Human Services, Lansing, Michigan, USA.
Ruth LynfieldMinnesota Department of Health, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA.
Susan L RoppNew Mexico Department of Health, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA.
Grant BarneyNew York State Department of Health, Albany, New York, USA.
Brenda L TesiniUniversity of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, Rochester, New York, USA.
Eli ShiltzOhio Department of Health, Columbus, Ohio, USA.
Melissa SuttonPublic Health Division, Oregon Health Authority, Portland, Oregon, USA.
H Keipp TalbotVanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, USA.
Isabella ReyesSalt Lake County Health Department, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA.
Fiona P HaversCDC, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The COVID-19-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET) was established in March 2020 to monitor trends in hospitalizations associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. COVID-NET is a geographically diverse population-based surveillance system for laboratory-confirmed COVID-19-associated hospitalizations with a combined catchment area covering approximately 10% of the US population. Data collected in COVID-NET includes monthly counts of hospitalizations for persons with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection who reside within the defined catchment area. A Bayesian modeling approach is proposed to estimate US national COVID-associated hospital admission rates based on information reported in the COVID-NET system. A key component of the approach is the ability to estimate uncertainty resulting from extrapolation of hospitalization rates observed within COVID-NET to the US population. In addition, the proposed model enables estimation of other contributors to uncertainty including temporal dependence among reported COVID-NET admission counts, the impact of unmeasured site-specific factors, and the frequency and accuracy of testing for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Based on the proposed model, an estimated 6.3 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 5.4-7.3 million) COVID-19-associated hospital admissions occurred in the United States from September 2020 through December 2023. Between April 2020 and December 2023, model-based monthly admission rate estimates ranged from a minimum of 1 per 10,000 population (95% UI 0.7-1.2) in June of 2023 to a highest monthly level of 16 per 10,000 (95% UI 13-19) in January 2022.

Indexed as

Bayes TheoremCOVID-19HospitalizationSARS-CoV-2Sentinel SurveillanceHumansUnited StatesBayesian modelingCOVID‐19hospitalizationPopulation‐based surviellancesentinel surviellance

Identifiers

PMID39440677
PMCPMC11497105

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.