ArticleCancer medicine2024
Global Trend in Pancreatic Cancer Prevalence Rates Through 2040: An Illness-Death Modeling Study.
Article in Cancer medicine, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 22 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Pooled it
- Comparative diagnostic performance of endoscopic ultrasound, MRI, and CT for preoperative assessment of pancreatic cancer: a Bayesian network meta-analysis under a graded reference standard.BMC medical imaging · 2026Pooled it
- Exploring the biliary microbiome in hepatopancreatobiliary disorders: a comprehensive systematic review of microbial signatures and diagnostic potential.BMC gastroenterology · 2025Pooled it
- Tripterine Liposome Exerts Antitumor and Immunomodulatory Effects in Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma.MedComm · 2026Article
- Parameter-Dependent Electroporation and Cellular Responses Induced by Microsecond Pulsed Electric Fields: Different Sensitivity of Two Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma Cell Lines.Bioengineering (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Microbiota in pancreatic cancer: Roles in tumor initiation and progression (Review).Oncology letters · 2026Review
- Unravelling the pathogenesis and therapeutic approaches of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.Clinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico · 2026Review
- LncRNA YIYA drives pancreatic cancer proliferation under high-glucose conditions by reinforcing a RAS-PKM2-dependent Warburg phenotype.FEBS letters · 2026Article
- Multimodal prehabilitation in digestive oncology: a scoping review.Supportive care in cancer : official journal of the Multinational Association of Supportive Care in Cancer · 2026Article
- Decoding the microbial blueprint of pancreatic cancer.Frontiers in medicine · 2026Review
- Targeting TGF-βR1 Signaling Pathway in Pancreatic Cancer: A Potential Approach with Synthetic Flavanols.Anti-cancer agents in medicinal chemistry · 2026Article
- Inflammatory biomarkers in the pathogenesis of pancreatic cancer: A literature review.World journal of clinical oncology · 2025Review
- Oral and fecal microbiome alterations in pancreatic cancer: insights into potential diagnostic biomarkers.BMC microbiology · 2025Article
- MicroRNA-125b inhibits apoptosis and increases gemcitabine resistance by downregulating the expression of BAK1 in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.Translational cancer research · 2025Article
- Cabo Verde's cancer crisis: the fastest-rising mortality burden in the world.Medical oncology (Northwood, London, England) · 2025Article
- Article
- Harnessing artificial intelligence for detection of pancreatic cancer: a machine learning approach.Clinical and experimental medicine · 2025Article
- Microbiota as a state-of-the-art approach in precision medicine for pancreatic cancer management: A comprehensive systematic review.iScience · 2025Article
- Integrated periodontal pathogens and circulating miRNAs: a novel non-invasive panel of biomarkers for pancreatic cancer.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2025Article
- Polyallylamine Hydrochloride-Modified Bovine Serum Albumin Nanoparticles Loaded with α-Solanine for Chemotherapy of Pancreatic Cancer.International journal of nanomedicine · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundDespite remarkable progress in contemporary medical technology and enhanced survival outcomes for various cancer types, pancreatic cancer (PC) continues to stand out as a particularly deadly gastrointestinal malignancy. Given a persistent rise in both incidence and the corresponding mortality rates of PC globally, evaluations of PC burden by sex are of great importance. Here, we used the illness-death multi-state model (IDM) to forecast the prevalence of PC through the year 2040.
methodsIDM was established based on obtainable data to predict the future prevalence of PC on global, regional, and national scales from 2019 to 2040. Analyses were also performed regarding sex and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) are presented for all estimates.
resultsThe projected prevalence rate for 2040 is anticipated to be 6.093 ([95% CI 5.47-6.786] per 100,000) worldwide, indicating a significant increase of 31.45% since 1990, and a 12.29% increase since 2019. The estimated average annual increase since 2020 was 0.5%. Considering sex differences, females are expected to have a steeper slope in prevalence rate than males. Intriguingly, when considering the percentage changes between the periods of 2019-2040 and 1990-2019 for both sexes, females exhibited 29% and 11% increase relative to males (2.6-fold greater increase).
conclusionsBy 2040, it is predicted that the prevalence of PC will increase globally, with women being at higher risk of developing the disease. Considering the percentage changes, regions with lower socioeconomic status are anticipated to face a greater risk of experiencing PC compared to other geographical areas.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.