Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39438978›Full record

ArticleJournal of orthopaedic surgery and research2024

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict the risk of adjacent segment disease after transforaminal lumbar interbody fusion in patients with lumbar degenerative diseases.

Miao Yu, Jiawen Ye, Hui Xing, Hong Yin, Tao Jiang, Minghan Liu, Changqing Li

Abstract readValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of orthopaedic surgery and research, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Development and validation of explainable machine learning models to predict the risk of adjacent segment disease after lumbar fusion surgery.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2026
    Article
  3. Sarcopenia, paraspinal muscle degeneration, and bone quality as prognostic factors for adjacent segment degeneration or disease after lumbar fusion: a systematic review and meta-analysis.European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2026
    Article
  4. Letter to the editor concerning "Do all symptomatic adjacent segment diseases (ASD) require surgery? A prognostic classification and predictors of surgical treatment of lumbar ASD" by RM Kanna, et al. (Eur spine J [2025]: doi: 10.1007/s00586-025-08797-x).European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society · 2025
    Article
  5. Article
  6. Observational
  7. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Miao YuDepartment of Orthopedics, Xinqiao Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, 400037, P.R. China.
Jiawen YeDepartment of Orthopedics, Medical Center Hospital of Qionglai City, Sichuan Province, 611500, P.R. China.
Hui XingDepartment of Orthopedics, Xinqiao Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, 400037, P.R. China.
Hong YinDepartment of Orthopedics, Xinqiao Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, 400037, P.R. China.
Tao JiangDepartment of Orthopedics, Xinqiao Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, 400037, P.R. China.
Minghan LiuDepartment of Orthopedics, Xinqiao Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, 400037, P.R. China. liuminghan@tmmu.edu.cn.
Changqing LiDepartment of Orthopedics, Xinqiao Hospital, Army Medical University (Third Military Medical University), Chongqing, 400037, P.R. China. changqli@tmmu.edu.cn.

Funding

Discipline construction facilitating Project of Army Military Medical University Xinqiao hospital 2024C050National Natural Science Foundation of China 82172488
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundAdjacent segment disease (ASD) is a common and serious complication that can develop in the mid- to long-term after lumbar fusion surgery. However, the underlying mechanisms of ASD are not yet fully understood. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for ASD in patients who underwent transforaminal lumbar interbody fusion (TLIF) for lumbar degenerative diseases.

methodsPatients with lumbar degenerative disease who underwent TLIF between January 2015 and December 2016 were included in the retrospective study. The participants were divided into two groups: ASD and non-ASD. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify factors influencing ASD after TLIF surgery. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the model's discrimination, calibration and clinical value, respectively.

resultsA total of 11.5% (59/513) of patients developed ASD. Higher BMI, lower BMD, higher disc grade, and reduced disc height were identified as independent risk factors for ASD after TLIF. The model demonstrated good discrimination in both the training and validation sets, with calibration and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests confirming accuracy, and DCA demonstrating clinical applicability.

conclusionsThe nomogram model demonstrated promise in predicting ASD in patients who underwent TLIF, aiding clinicians in selecting the most suitable surgical approach and optimizing surgical decisions.

Indexed as

Intervertebral Disc DegenerationLumbar VertebraeNomogramsPostoperative ComplicationsSpinal FusionAdultAgedFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedPredictive Value of TestsRetrospective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsAdjacent segment diseaseNomogramPredictive modelTransforaminal lumbar interbody fusion

Identifiers

PMID39438978
PMCPMC11494743

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.