ArticleScientific reports2024
Modeling tuberculosis transmission dynamics in Kazakhstan using SARIMA and SIR models.
Article in Scientific reports, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Socioeconomic Interventions for WHO's End TB Strategy Targets: Insights from SIR Modelling in Kazakhstan.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2026Article
- Treatment outcomes for drug-resistant tuberculosis: a retrospective longitudinal study.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Comparison of SES method and SARIMA model in predicting the number of admissions in the department of neurology.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- A quantum mechanics-based framework for infectious disease modeling.Scientific reports · 2025Article
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7 authors.
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Abstract
Tuberculosis (TB) is a highly contagious disease that remains a global concern affecting numerous countries. Kazakhstan has been facing considerable challenges in TB prevention and treatment for decades. This study aims to understand TB transmission dynamics by developing and comparing statistical and deterministic models: Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and the basic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR). TB data from 2014 to 2019 were collected from the Unified National Electronic Health System (UNEHS) using retrospective quantitative analysis. SARIMA models were able to capture seasonal variations, with Model 2 exhibiting superior predictive accuracy. Both models showed declining TB incidence and revealed a notable predictive performance evaluated by statistical metrics. In addition, the SIR model calculated the basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]) below 1, indicating a receding epidemic. Models proved the capability of each to accurately capture trends (SARIMA) and provide mathematical insights (SIR) into TB transmission dynamics. This study contributes to the general knowledge of TB transmission dynamics in Kazakhstan thus laying the foundation for more comprehensive studies on TB and control strategies.
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