ArticleCommunications medicine2024
High-resolution modeling and projection of heat-related mortality in Germany under climate change.
Article in Communications medicine, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Heat exhaustion, domestic heat exposure and socioeconomic disparities among older adults: a cross-sectional mediation analysis from Germany.International journal for equity in health · 2026Article
- Ambient temperature and the variability between neighbouring days impacts in-patient hospitalizations in the United Kingdom.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Transformative Learning in Digital Bioethics Education: An Interdisciplinary Lecture Series on Human-Animal Relationships.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2025Article
- Urban heat above and below ground: towards improved understanding, modelling, mitigation and adaptation.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2025Article
- [Applications, challenges and a trustworthy use of artificial intelligence in public health].Bundesgesundheitsblatt, Gesundheitsforschung, Gesundheitsschutz · 2025Review
- High-resolution modeling and projection of heat-related mortality in Germany under climate change.Communications medicine · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundHeat has become a leading cause of preventable deaths during summer. Understanding the link between high temperatures and excess mortality is crucial for designing effective prevention and adaptation plans. Yet, data analyses are challenging due to often fragmented data archives over different agglomeration levels.
methodUsing Germany as a case study, we develop a multi-scale machine learning model to estimate heat-related mortality with variable temporal and spatial resolution. This approach allows us to estimate heat-related mortality at different scales, such as regional heat risk during a specific heatwave, annual and nationwide heat risk, or future heat risk under climate change scenarios.
resultsWe estimate a total of 48,000 heat-related deaths in Germany during the last decade (2014-2023), and the majority of heat-related deaths occur during specific heatwave events. Aggregating our results over larger regions, we reach good agreement with previously published reports from Robert Koch Institute (RKI). In 2023, the heatwave of July 7-14 contributes approximately 1100 cases (28%) to a total of approximately 3900 heat-related deaths for the whole year. Combining our model with shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) of future climate change provides evidence that heat-related mortality in Germany could further increase by a factor of 2.5 (SSP245) to 9 (SSP370) without adaptation to extreme heat under static sociodemographic developments assumptions.
conclusionsOur approach is a valuable tool for climate-driven public health strategies, aiding in the identification of local risks during heatwaves and long-term resilience planning.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.