Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39430422›Full record

ArticleCommunications earth & environment2024

Major distribution shifts are projected for key rangeland grasses under a high-emission scenario in East Africa at the end of the 21

Martina Messmer, Sandra Eckert, Amor Torre-Marin Rando, Mark Snethlage, Santos J González-Rojí, Kaspar Hurni, Urs Beyerle, Andreas Hemp, Staline Kibet, Thomas F Stocker

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Communications earth & environment, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Martina MessmerClimate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0001-6835-4508
Sandra EckertCentre for Development and Environment, University of Bern, Mittelstrasse 43, Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-9579-5680
Amor Torre-Marin RandoInstitute of Plant Sciences, University of Bern, Altenbergrain 21, Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.
Mark SnethlageInstitute of Plant Sciences, University of Bern, Altenbergrain 21, Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.
Santos J González-RojíClimate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0003-4737-0984
Kaspar HurniCentre for Development and Environment, University of Bern, Mittelstrasse 43, Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.
Urs BeyerleInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-6464-0838
Andreas HempDepartment of Plant Systematics, University of Bayreuth, Universitätsstrasse 30, 95440 Bayreuth, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-5369-2122
Staline KibetLand Resource Management and Agricultural Technology Department, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Nairobi, P.O Box 29053-00625 Nairobi, Kenya.
Thomas F StockerClimate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, Bern, 3012 Bern, Switzerland.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Grassland landscapes are important ecosystems in East Africa, providing habitat and grazing grounds for wildlife and livestock and supporting pastoralism, an essential part of the agricultural sector. Since future grassland availability directly affects the future mobility needs of pastoralists and wildlife, we aim to model changes in the distribution of key grassland species under climate change. Here we combine a global and regional climate model with a machine learning-based species distribution model to understand the impact of regional climate change on different key grass species. The application of a dynamical downscaling step allows us to capture the fine-scale effects of the region's complex climate, its variability and future changes. We show that the co-occurrence of the analysed grass species is reduced in large parts of eastern Africa, and particularly in the Turkana region, under the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario for the last 30 years of the 21

Indexed as

Climate-change ecologyClimate sciences

Identifiers

PMID39430422
PMCPMC11486655

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.