ArticleNature communications2024
Warm Arctic-Cold Eurasia pattern helps predict spring wildfire burned area in West Siberia.
Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Attributing climate and weather extremes to Northern Hemisphere sea ice and terrestrial snow: progress, challenges and ways forward.NPJ climate and atmospheric science · 2025Review
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Extreme wildfires have devastating impacts on multiple fronts, and associated carbon greatly heats the earth's climate. Whether and how to predict wildfires becomes a critical question. In this study, we find that the preceding-winter "warm Arctic-cold Eurasia" (WACE) pattern significantly enlarges the spring burned area in West Siberia. The winter WACE and accompanying snow reduction result in dryness and vegetation exposure in West Siberia in spring, increasing fire risks. A multiple linear regression model is constructed that successfully predicts the spring burned area in West Siberia one season in advance (R-squared coefficient=0.64). The same predictors also well predict the corresponding fire carbon emissions. Independent predictions for spring burned area in 2019 and 2020 are very close to observations, with a mean absolute percentage error of only 3.0%. The findings of this study provide a possibility for guarding humans against extreme wildfires and predicting sharp rises in carbon emissions.
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Registered trials
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