Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39419058›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet. Public health2024

Mass incarceration as a driver of the tuberculosis epidemic in Latin America and projected effects of policy alternatives: a mathematical modelling study.

Yiran E Liu, Yasmine Mabene, Sergio Camelo, Zulma Vanessa Rueda, Daniele Maria Pelissari, Fernanda Dockhorn Costa Johansen, Moises A Huaman, Tatiana Avalos-Cruz, Valentina A Alarcón, Lawrence M Ladutke and 5 more

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In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet. Public health, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 30 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
30citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

30 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  18. Lancet regional health. Americas · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

Yiran E LiuDepartment of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA; Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. Electronic address: yiranliu@stanford.edu.
Yasmine MabeneDivision of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Sergio CameloInstitute for Computational and Mathematical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Zulma Vanessa RuedaDepartment of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada; School of Medicine, Universidad Pontificia Bolivariana, Medellin, Colombia.
Daniele Maria PelissariNational Tuberculosis Program, Ministry of Health, Brasília, Brazil.
Fernanda Dockhorn Costa JohansenNational Tuberculosis Program, Ministry of Health, Brasília, Brazil.
Moises A HuamanDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, Cincinnati, OH, USA.
Tatiana Avalos-CruzDirección de Prevención y Control de la Tuberculosis, Ministerio de Salud, Lima, Perú.
Valentina A AlarcónDirección de Prevención y Control de la Tuberculosis, Ministerio de Salud, Lima, Perú.
Lawrence M LadutkeNew Jersey City University, Jersey City, NJ, USA.
Marcelo BergmanCenter for Latin American Studies on Insecurity and Violence, National University of Tres de Febrero, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Ted CohenDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
Jeremy D Goldhaber-FiebertDepartment of Health Policy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA; Center for Health Policy, Freeman Spogli Institute, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Julio CrodaDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, School of Public Health, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA; Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, Campo Grande, Brazil; Fiocruz Mato Grosso do Sul, Campo Grande, Brazil.
Jason R AndrewsDivision of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine, Department of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.

Funding

Yale Clinical and Translational Science Award (U Component)UL1TR001863 · NCATS · YALE UNIVERSITY · PI John H. Krystal, LUCILA OHNO-MACHADO · 2016 to 2026
$102.9M
Strategies for tuberculosis control in prisonsR01AI130058 · NIAID · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI Jason Randolph Andrews, Julio Henrique Rosa Croda · 2017 to 2026
$5.8M
Characterizing infectiousness of subclinical TB and identifying novel early diagnostic strategies for preventing transmissionR01AI149620 · NIAID · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI ANDREWS, JASON RANDOLPH, CRODA, JULIO · 2020 to 2023
$617k
NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001863NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI130058NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI149620
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundTuberculosis incidence is increasing in Latin America, where the incarcerated population has nearly quadrupled since 1990. We aimed to quantify the impact of historical and future incarceration policies on the tuberculosis epidemic, accounting for effects in and beyond prisons.

methodsIn this modelling study, we calibrated dynamic compartmental transmission models to historical and contemporary data from Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, El Salvador, Mexico, and Peru, which comprise approximately 80% of the region's incarcerated population and tuberculosis burden. The model was fit independently for each country to incarceration and tuberculosis data from 1990 to 2023 (specific dates were country dependent). The model does not include HIV, drug resistance, gender or sex, or age structure. Using historical counterfactual scenarios, we estimated the transmission population attributable fraction (tPAF) for incarceration and the excess population-level burden attributable to increasing incarceration prevalence since 1990. We additionally projected the effect of alternative incarceration policies on future population tuberculosis incidence.

findingsPopulation tuberculosis incidence in 2019 was 29·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 23·9-36·8) higher than expected without the rise in incarceration since 1990, corresponding to 34 393 (28 295-42 579) excess incident cases across countries. The incarceration tPAF in 2019 was 27·2% (20·9-35·8), exceeding estimates for other risk factors like HIV, alcohol use disorder, and undernutrition. Compared with a scenario where incarceration rates remain stable at current levels, a gradual 50% reduction in prison admissions and duration of incarceration by 2034 would reduce population tuberculosis incidence by over 10% in all countries except Mexico.

interpretationThe historical rise in incarceration in Latin America has resulted in a large excess tuberculosis burden that has been under-recognised to date. International health agencies, ministries of justice, and national tuberculosis programmes should collaborate to address this health crisis with comprehensive strategies, including decarceration.

fundingNational Institutes of Health.

Indexed as

EpidemicsModels, TheoreticalPrisonersTuberculosisHealth PolicyHumansIncarcerationIncidenceLatin AmericaPrisons

Identifiers

PMID39419058
PMCPMC11602220

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.