Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39414961›Full record

ArticleNature ecology & evolution2024

Rapid shifts in grassland communities driven by climate change.

Kai Zhu, Yiluan Song, Josephine C Lesage, Justin C Luong, James W Bartolome, Nona R Chiariello, Joan Dudney, Christopher B Field, Lauren M Hallett, Michele Hammond and 8 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature ecology & evolution, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Global grassland productivity and carbon storage benefit from functional diversity under climate change.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
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  4. Review
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  9. Testing whether connectivity stabilizes metacommunities and rescues declining diversity in a 25-y grassland study.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

18 authors.

Kai Zhu *School for Environment and Sustainability, Institute for Global Change Biology, and Michigan Institute for Data and AI in Society, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA. zhukai@umich.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1587-3317
Yiluan Song *School for Environment and Sustainability, Institute for Global Change Biology, and Michigan Institute for Data and AI in Society, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3660-3797
Josephine C LesageDepartment of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6264-101X
Justin C LuongDepartment of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2118-4788
James W BartolomeDepartment of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Nona R ChiarielloJasper Ridge Biological Preserve, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.
Joan DudneyBren School of Environmental Science and Management and Department of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.
Christopher B FieldStanford Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1684-8247
Lauren M HallettDepartment of Biology and Environmental Studies Program, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, USA.
Michele HammondEast Bay Regional Park District, Oakland, CA, USA.
Susan P HarrisonDepartment of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, USA.
Grey F HayesDepartment of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.
Richard J HobbsSchool of Biological Sciences, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
Karen D HollDepartment of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2893-6161
Peter HopkinsonEast Bay Regional Park District, Oakland, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0033-5647
Loralee LariosDepartment of Botany and Plant Sciences, University of California, Riverside, Riverside, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9740-8111
Michael E LoikDepartment of Environmental Studies, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.
Laura R PrughSchool of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9045-3107

Funding

National Science Foundation (NSF) 1628754National Science Foundation (NSF) 2047239National Science Foundation (NSF) 2244711National Science Foundation (NSF) 2306198United States Department of Agriculture | Agricultural Research Service (USDA Agricultural Research Service) 99-35101-8234
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Many terrestrial plant communities, especially forests, have been shown to lag in response to rapid climate change. Grassland communities may respond more quickly to novel climates, as they consist mostly of short-lived species, which are directly exposed to macroclimate change. Here we report the rapid response of grassland communities to climate change in the California Floristic Province. We estimated 349 vascular plant species' climatic niches from 829,337 occurrence records, compiled 15 long-term community composition datasets from 12 observational studies and 3 global change experiments, and analysed community compositional shifts in the climate niche space. We show that communities experienced significant shifts towards species associated with warmer and drier locations at rates of 0.0216 ± 0.00592 °C yr

Indexed as

BiodiversityClimate ChangeGrasslandCaliforniaPlants

Identifiers

PMID39414961
PMCPMC11618070

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.