ArticleBMC cancer2024
Estimation of burden of cancer incidence and mortality in India: based on global burden of disease study 1990-2021.
Article in BMC cancer, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.
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Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed.
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- The Burden of Genitourinary Malignancies in Southeast Asia from 1990 to 2021.European urology oncology · 2025Article
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- Mortality Projections, Regional Disparities in the Burden of Neonatal Disorders, and the Status of Achieving SDG Targets by 2030 in South Asia: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.Journal of epidemiology and global health · 2025Article
- Prostate cancer burden in South Asia: A systematic analysis of global burden of disease data (1990-2021).International journal of urology : official journal of the Japanese Urological Association · 2025Article
- Enhancing Cancer Screening and Early Diagnosis in India: Overcoming Challenges and Leveraging Emerging Technologies.Cureus · 2025Review
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Authors and funding
13 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundCancer poses a significant public health challenge in India, making it crucial to predict its future impact for effective healthcare planning. This study forecast cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in India from 2022 to 2031.
methodsWe extracted age-standardized data on incidence, prevalence, DALYs, and mortality from 1990 to 2021 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. We used Decadal Average Percentage Change techniques to identify trends in cancer burden over decades and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method were used for forecasting. The ARIMA (2,2,2) model was identified as the best for predicting cancer incidence, ARIMA (0,3,3) for DALYs, and ARIMA (0,2,2) for mortality.
resultsThe cancer incidence rate is expected to rise from 529.40 (95% CI: 525.41-533.38) in 2022 to 549.17 (95% CI: 487.43-610.92) per 100,000 population in 2031. The DALYs rate is projected to decrease from 2001.53 (95% CI: 1964.24-2038.82) in 2022 to 1842.08 (95% CI: 1273.57-2410.60) per 100,000 population in 2031, indicating improvements in cancer burden management. Mortality rates are forecasted to increase slightly, from 71.52 (95% CI: 69.91-73.12) in 2022 to 73.00 (95% CI: 60.88-85.11) per 100,000 population in 2031. Overall, while incidence and mortality rates show a slight upward trend, the DALYs rate is projected to decrease, reflecting potential advancements in cancer management and treatment over the forecast period.
conclusionsOver the next decade, cancer incidence and mortality are expected to increase in India, highlighting the need for enhanced prevention, early detection, and proper treatment strategies. Despite these increases, the anticipated decrease in DALYs suggests potential advancements in cancer management, warranting further investigation into the drivers of this positive trend and measures to sustain it.
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