Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39405358›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2024

Estimating the lives that could be saved by expanded access to weight-loss drugs.

Abhishek Pandey, Yang Ye, Chad R Wells, Burton H Singer, Alison P Galvani

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
9citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

9 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Cancer risk and mortality assessment in the overweight population: evaluation of single and integrated models based on inflammatory markers.Clinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico · 2026
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Estimating US savings on outpatient prescription pharmaceuticals from international reference pricing.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  6. Review
  7. Incretin mimetics for weight loss forgive nonadherence.Diabetes, obesity & metabolism · 2025
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Estimating the lives that could be saved by expanded access to weight-loss drugs.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2024
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Abhishek PandeyDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510.ORCID 0000-0003-4578-7487
Yang YeDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510.
Chad R WellsDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510.ORCID 0000-0003-1370-8350
Burton H SingerDepartment of Mathematics, Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610.ORCID 0000-0002-5295-5971
Alison P GalvaniDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510.

Funding

Burnett Endowment NANotsew Orm Sands Foundation NA
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Obesity is a major public health crisis in the United States (US) affecting 42% of the population, exacerbating a spectrum of other diseases and contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality overall. Recent advances in pharmaceutical interventions, particularly glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists (e.g., semaglutide, liraglutide) and dual gastric inhibitory polypeptide and GLP-1 receptor agonists (e.g., tirzepatide), have shown remarkable efficacy in weight-loss. However, limited access to these medications due to high costs and insurance coverage issues restricts their utility in mitigating the obesity epidemic. We quantify the annual mortality burden directly attributable to limited access to these medications in the US. By integrating hazard ratios of mortality across body mass index categories with current obesity prevalence data, combined with healthcare access, willingness to take the medication, and observed adherence to and efficacy of the medications, we estimate the impact of making these medications accessible to all those eligible. Specifically, we project that with expanded access, over 42,000 deaths could be averted annually, including more than 11,000 deaths among people with type 2 diabetes. These findings underscore the urgent need to address barriers to access and highlight the transformative public health impact that could be achieved by expanding access to these novel treatments.

Indexed as

Anti-Obesity AgentsObesityAdultFemaleGlucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor AgonistsHealth Services AccessibilityHumansMaleMiddle AgedUnited StatesWeight LossAnti-Obesity AgentsGlucagon-Like Peptide-1 Receptor Agonistsdiabetesdrug accessmortalityobesityweight-loss drugs

Identifiers

PMID39405358
PMCPMC11513960

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.