Evaluating the efficacy of 8 non-invasive models in predicting MASLD and progression: a prospective study.

backgroundSelecting the optimal non-invasive diagnostic model for MASLD (Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatosis Liver Disease) and steatosis progression is a critical issue given the variety of available models. We aimed to compare the performance of eight clinical prediction models for diagnosing and predicting the progression of hepatic steatosis using MRI-PDFF (Magnetic Resonance Imaging-Derived Proton Density Fat Fraction), and validate the findings with FibroScan and histopathological results.

methodsIn this study, 846 participants were initially enrolled, with 108 undergoing liver biopsy and 706 completing one-year follow-up, including 26 who underwent repeat biopsy. We calculated scores for eight clinical prediction models (FAST, KNAFLD, HSI, FLI, Liver Fat Score, Liver Fat Equation, BAAT, LAP) using collected clinical data and defined steatosis progression as a 30% relative increase in liver fat content (LFC) measured by MRI-PDFF. CAP(Controlled Attenuation Parameter) and LSM (Liver Stiffness Measurement) were obtained by Fibroscan. MRI-PDFF served as the reference standard for evaluating model accuracy, and sensitivity analyses were performed using liver biopsy and Fibroscan results.

resultsAmong the eight clinical models, NAS (nonalcoholic fatty liver disease activity score) showed higher correlation with the FAST and KNAFLD models (r: 0.62 and 0.52, respectively). Among the whole cohort (N = 846), KNAFLD was the best model for predicting different degrees of hepatic steatosis (AUC = 0.84). When the KNAFLD score was above 2.935, LFC was significantly higher (4.4% vs. 19.7%, P < 0.001). After 1 year of follow-up (N = 706), FAST performed best in predicting MASLD progression (AUC = 0.84); with dFAST > -0.02, LFC increased (8.6-10.9%, P < 0.05), mean LSM increased by 0.51 kPa, and with dFAST < -0.02, LFC significantly decreased (11.5-8.5%, P < 0.05), mean LSM and NAS decreased by 0.87 kPa and 0.76, respectively (both P < 0.05).

conclusionsMost models demonstrated good diagnostic and prognostic capabilities for hepatic steatosis, with FAST and KNAFLD showing particular promise as primary non-invasive tools in clinical practice. TRAIL REGISTRATION: Chinese Clinical Trial Registry NO: ChiCTR2100054743, Registered December 26, 2021.