ArticleNature communications2024
No universal mathematical model for thermal performance curves across traits and taxonomic groups.
Article in Nature communications, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed.
- Temporal Autocorrelation Increases Temperature-Driven Extinction Risk by Clustering Stressful Conditions.Ecology letters · 2026Article
- Reply to Arroyo et al.: Universality and diversity in thermal performance curves.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Explaining the universality of biological thermal responses.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- A Functional Trait-Based Approach to Mapping Climate-Driven Changes in Temperature-Dependent Feeding Suitability.Ecology and evolution · 2026Article
- Order matters: Autocorrelation of temperature dictates extinction risk in populations with nonlinear thermal performance.Ecology · 2026Article
- A flexible model for thermal performance curves.Ecology · 2026Article
- Article
- Thermal performance curves and age-stage, two-sex life table ofFrontiers in insect science · 2026Article
- Toward a general understanding of thermal performance curves in biology.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- A universal thermal performance curve arises in biology and ecology.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Ground warming boosts cooperative transport in a temperate ant species.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2025Article
- An Experimental Validation Test of Ecological Coexistence Theory to Forecast Extinction Under Rising Temperatures.Ecology letters · 2025Article
- No universal mathematical model for thermal performance curves across traits and taxonomic groups.Nature communications · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
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Abstract
In ectotherms, the performance of physiological, ecological and life-history traits universally increases with temperature to a maximum before decreasing again. Identifying the most appropriate thermal performance model for a specific trait type has broad applications, from metabolic modelling at the cellular level to forecasting the effects of climate change on population, ecosystem and disease transmission dynamics. To date, numerous mathematical models have been designed, but a thorough comparison among them is lacking. In particular, we do not know if certain models consistently outperform others and how factors such as sampling resolution and trait or organismal identity influence model performance. To fill this knowledge gap, we compile 2,739 thermal performance datasets from diverse traits and taxa, to which we fit a comprehensive set of 83 existing mathematical models. We detect remarkable variation in model performance that is not primarily driven by sampling resolution, trait type, or taxonomic information. Our results reveal a surprising lack of well-defined scenarios in which certain models are more appropriate than others. To aid researchers in selecting the appropriate set of models for any given dataset or research objective, we derive a classification of the 83 models based on the average similarity of their fits.
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