UroARC: A Novel Surgical Risk Calculator for Older Adults Undergoing Suprapubic Tube Placement.

objectiveTo develop a surgical risk calculator for older adults undergoing suprapubic tube (SPT) placement that specifically factors in frailty, a key predictor of surgical risk in this vulnerable and heterogenous population.

methodsMedicare MedPAR, Outpatient, and Carrier files for beneficiaries undergoing SPT placement between 2014-2016 were examined. The Claims-Based Frailty Index (CFI), a validated measure of frailty, was used to calculate baseline frailty for each beneficiary. Stepwise regression models were used for each variable within the CFI and Charlson Comorbidity Index to determine the variables most highly predictive of postoperative complications. The most highly predictive variables were then combined into parsimonious categories. To ensure the prognostic accuracy for each outcome, calibration curves and tests of model fit, including C-statistics, Brier scores, and Spiegelhalter P-values were calculated.

resultsA total of 26,999 beneficiaries were included. Among these, 39.1% were pre-frail, 36.8% were mildly frail, and 12.3% were moderately to severely frail. Thirteen prognostic variable categories were deemed highly predictive of postoperative complications of interest. All models demonstrated low Brier scores, indicating high model accuracy, and high C-statistic and Spiegelhalter P-values, consistent with excellent model discrimination and calibration, respectively. Excellent model fit was seen on calibration curves for each outcome.

conclusionUroARC is a novel surgical tool for older adults undergoing SPT placement that specifically factors in frailty. This risk calculator has high accuracy, calibration, and discrimination, and serves as a valuable resource to patients and clinicians for those undergoing consideration for SPT placement.