Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39397184›Full record

ArticleJournal of autism and developmental disorders2026

Investigating the Predictive Validity of the Quantitative Checklist for Autism in Toddlers and the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule-2 in Children at Elevated Likelihood for Autism.

Sarah Schaubroeck, Ellen Demurie, Jannath Begum-Ali, Sven Bölte, Sofie Boterberg, Jan Buitelaar, Tony Charman, Terje Falck-Ytter, Sabine Hunnius, Mark Johnson and 5 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of autism and developmental disorders, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

Sarah SchaubroeckResearch in Developmental Diversity Lab (RIDDL), UGent, Department of Experimental Clinical and Health Psychology, Ghent University, Henri Dunantlaan 2, 9000, Ghent, Belgium. sarah.schaubroeck@ugent.be.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5094-2395
Ellen DemurieResearch in Developmental Diversity Lab (RIDDL), UGent, Department of Experimental Clinical and Health Psychology, Ghent University, Henri Dunantlaan 2, 9000, Ghent, Belgium.
Jannath Begum-AliCentre for Brain and Cognitive Development, Birkbeck College, University of London, London, UK.
Sven BölteDepartment of Women's and Children's Health, Centre for Neurodevelopmental Disorders, Karolinska Institutet (KIND), Stockholm, Sweden.
Sofie BoterbergResearch in Developmental Diversity Lab (RIDDL), UGent, Department of Experimental Clinical and Health Psychology, Ghent University, Henri Dunantlaan 2, 9000, Ghent, Belgium.
Jan BuitelaarDepartment of Cognitive Neuroscience, Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition & Behaviour, Radboud University Medical Centre, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
Tony CharmanDepartment of Psychology, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London, London, UK.
Terje Falck-YtterDepartment of Women's and Children's Health, Centre for Neurodevelopmental Disorders, Karolinska Institutet (KIND), Stockholm, Sweden.
Sabine HunniusDepartment of Cognitive Neuroscience, Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition & Behaviour, Radboud University Medical Centre, Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
Mark JohnsonCentre for Brain and Cognitive Development, Birkbeck College, University of London, London, UK.
Emily JonesCentre for Brain and Cognitive Development, Birkbeck College, University of London, London, UK.
Greg PascoCentre for Brain and Cognitive Development, Birkbeck College, University of London, London, UK.
Carlijn Van den BoomenDepartment of Psychiatry, Brain Centre Rudolf Magnus, University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Petra WarreynResearch in Developmental Diversity Lab (RIDDL), UGent, Department of Experimental Clinical and Health Psychology, Ghent University, Henri Dunantlaan 2, 9000, Ghent, Belgium.
Herbert RoeyersResearch in Developmental Diversity Lab (RIDDL), UGent, Department of Experimental Clinical and Health Psychology, Ghent University, Henri Dunantlaan 2, 9000, Ghent, Belgium.

Funding

Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek 12Z8821NHORIZON EUROPE European Research Council 642990Innovative Medicines Initiative 115300Innovative Medicines Initiative 777394Medical Research Council G0701484Medical Research Council MR/K021389/1Medical Research Council MR/T003057/1Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007 - 2013Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

This study examined the recurrence rate of autism in siblings at elevated likelihood (EL) and the predictive validity of the Q-CHAT and ADOS-2 at 14 and 24 months (m) for a clinical best estimate (CBE) autism diagnosis at 3 years. 331 EL-siblings (47.9% girls) from the prospective longitudinal EuroSibs study underwent ADOS-2 assessments and caregivers completed the Q-CHAT at 14 m and 24 m. At 3 years CBE was determined using DSM-5 criteria. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) were estimated. Autism recurrence rate was 25.7% [95% CI (21.1, 30.6)]. Q-CHAT sensitivity was 31.8% [95% CI (21.4, 43.6)] at 14 m and 30.6% [95% CI (20.7, 41.7)] at 24 m. Specificity was 81.2% [95% CI (75.4, 86.2)] at 14 m and 94.8% [95% CI (91.2, 97.2)] at 24 m. PPV was 35.6% [95% CI (24.2, 48.2)] at 14 m and 66.7% [95% CI (49.8, 81.1)] at 24 m. NPV was 78.5% [95% CI (72.6, 83.7)] and 79.9% [95% CI (74.7, 84.6)] respectively. ADOS-2 demonstrated a of 64.3% [95% CI (45.9, 80.2)] and 69.3% [95% CI (58.4, 79.0)] and a specificity of 71.1% [95% CI (60.3, 80.4)] and 68.7% [95% CI (62.5, 74.5)] at 14 m and 24 m respectively. PPV was 45% [95% CI (30.3, 60.4)] at 14 m and 41.9% [95% CI (33.5, 50.7)] at 24 m. NPV was 84.4% [95% CI (74.2, 91.8)] at 14 m and 87.3% [95% CI (81.9, 91.6)] at 24 m. Q-CHAT and ADOS-2 at 14 m and 24 m can aid in early differentiation between EL-siblings who need further assessment and those who do not, but neither has sufficient sensitivity and PPV for standalone CBE diagnosis prediction.

Indexed as

Autistic DisorderChecklistChild, PreschoolFemaleHumansInfantLongitudinal StudiesMalePredictive Value of TestsProspective StudiesRecurrenceReproducibility of ResultsSensitivity and SpecificitySiblingsADOS-2AutismEarly screeningElevated likelihoodQ-CHATSiblings

Identifiers

PMID39397184
PMCPMC12864214

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.