Transition from acute to chronic low back pain in a community-based cohort.

The transition from acute to chronic low back pain (LBP) in community settings is not well understood. The purpose of this study was to assess the feasibility of recruitment and estimate the transition and continuation of chronic LBP. We also explored characteristics associated with this transition to chronic LBP. We enrolled n = 131 participants, of which n = 118 (90 %) completed 3-month outcomes and n = 111 (85 %) completed 6-month outcomes. Acute LBP was defined by a duration of < 4 weeks and a 30-day LBP-free period before the current acute episode. Chronic LBP was defined as pain most or every day over the past 3 months. The transition from acute to chronic LBP at 3 months was 32.2 % (38/118), and at 6 months, 80.6 % (25/31) of participants who transitioned at 3 months continued to have chronic LBP at 6 months. Participants with more frequent acute LBP and at an intensity of 30/100 were more likely to transition to chronic LBP (Risk Ratio (RR)= 3.13, 95 % Confidence Interval (CI) 1.84, 5.30) and continue to have chronic LBP at 6-months (RR=3.10, 95 % CI 1.48, 6.08). Higher risk on the STarT Back Screening Tool was associated with the transition to chronic LBP at 3 months (RR=1.73, 95 % CI 1.28, 2.35) and continuation of chronic LBP at 6 months (RR=1.26, 95 % CI 1.10, 1.45). The recruitment of acute LBP was feasible in a community setting. Acute LBP is a common condition in the community and frequently transitions to chronic LBP, suggesting the potential for substantial burden in the community. PERSPECTIVE: This article presents the feasibility of conducting a community-based study to describe the transition, continuation, and psychosocial predictors of acute to chronic low back pain. These findings could help identify community participants at high risk of incident and continued chronic low back pain.