ArticleUnited European gastroenterology journal2025
Delayed gastric emptying risk stratification in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma after pancreatoduodenectomy: An international validation cohort study.
Article in United European gastroenterology journal, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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3 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Risk prediction models for delayed gastric emptying in patients after pancreaticoduodenectomy: a systematic review and meta-analysis.BMJ open · 2025Pooled it
- Delayed gastric emptying risk stratification in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma after pancreatoduodenectomy: An international validation cohort study.United European gastroenterology journal · 2025Article
- Risk stratification of postoperative pancreatic fistula and other complications following pancreatoduodenectomy. How far are we? A scoping review.Langenbeck's archives of surgery · 2025Article
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6 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundCurrently, there is still a lack of an accurate predictive model for delayed gastric emptying (DGE) following pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). The aim of this study was to develop a concise model that could effectively predict the risk of DGE.
methodsThis retrospective cohort study included a training cohort of 1251 consecutive PDAC patients who underwent PD from the US multicenter ACS-NSQIP database. Additionally, a validation cohort of 934 consecutive PDAC patients who underwent PD was included from the National Cancer Center in China. A total of 46 perioperative indicators were incorporated in the analysis. The DGE risk stratification (DGERS) model was then developed and validated using Lasso-logistic regression.
resultsAfter screening using Lasso-logistic regression, we identified four independent predictors that were significantly correlated with DGE: days to pancreatic drain removal (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.08; p < 0.001), pancreatic fistula (HR, 2.61; 95% CI, 1.65-4.12; p < 0.001), sepsis/septic shock (HR, 2.46; 95% CI, 1.52-3.91; p < 0.001), and reoperation (HR, 4.16; 95% CI, 2.27-7.57; p < 0.001). Based on these factors, we developed a nomogram to predict postoperative DGE. The model demonstrated excellent calibration and optimal performance in the validation cohorts (AUC, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.67-0.73). In the validation cohort, the DGERS exhibited significant risk stratification ability, with AUC values of 0.7, 0.61, and 0.74 for the low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups, respectively.
conclusionsThis study identified four factors that independently increased the occurrence of DGE in patients with PDAC after PD, including days to pancreatic drain removal, pancreatic fistula, sepsis/septic shock, and reoperation. Based on these findings, we developed a personalized and straightforward DGERS that enables dynamic and precise prediction of DGE risk, allowing for effective stratification of individuals based on their risk profiles.
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