ArticleMalaria journal2024
A global mathematical model of climatic suitability for Plasmodium falciparum malaria.
Article in Malaria journal, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Prediction of mosquito vector abundance for three species in the Anopheles gambiae complex.Parasites & vectors · 2025Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
Climatic conditions are a key determinant of malaria transmission intensity, through their impacts on both the parasite and its mosquito vectors. Mathematical models relating climatic conditions to malaria transmission can be used to develop spatial maps of climatic suitability for malaria. These maps underpin efforts to quantify the distribution and burden of malaria in humans, enabling improved monitoring and control. Previous work has developed mathematical models and global maps for the suitability of temperature for malaria transmission. In this paper, existing temperature-based models are extended to include two other important bioclimatic factors: humidity and rainfall. This model is combined with fine spatial resolution climatic data to produce a more biologically-realistic global map of climatic suitability for Plasmodium falciparum malaria. The climatic suitability index developed corresponds more closely than previous temperature suitability indices with the global distribution of P. falciparum malaria. There is weak agreement between the Malaria Atlas Project estimates of P. falciparum prevalence in Africa and the estimates of suitability solely based on temperature (Spearman Correlation coefficient of
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