Individualized evaluation of risk and prognosis in uterine leiomyosarcoma patients with synchronous distant metastases: a real-world retrospective study.

Background: Uterine leiomyosarcoma (uLMS) accounts for roughly 70% of all uterine sarcomas, with recurrence and mortality rates notably higher than those of other uterine tumors. The prognosis of uLMS patients who have distant metastases remains poor. The objective of this study was to determine independent risk variables related to distant metastases in patients with uLMS and prognostic factors for those with distant metastases. Subsequently, two practical nomograms were developed and validated to assess the probability of distant metastases and predict survival outcomes for these with distant metastases, respectively. Methods: A real-world retrospective study was carried out using data from patients diagnosed with primary uLMS in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database spanning the years 2010 to 2015. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were utilized to identify clinicopathological characteristics related to the risk of distant metastases, while univariate and multivariate Cox regressions were employed to determine prognostic factors. Then, a risk nomogram incorporating independent risk variables and a prognostic nomogram integrating independent prognostic factors were established in the training cohort and validated for accuracy in the validation cohort, respectively. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, area under the curve (AUC), and calibration curves were utilized to measure the accuracy of nomograms, while decision curve analysis (DCA) curves were employed to assess their clinical benefit capacity. Based on the median total point derived from the prognostic nomogram, patients were stratified into high- and low-risk groups. The differentiation ability of the prognostic nomogram was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis with the log-rank test. Results: The study encompassed 1,362 patients diagnosed with uLMS, among whom 337 cases (24.7%) manifested synchronous distant metastases at the initial diagnosis. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses identified race, histological grade, T stage, N stage, tumor size, surgery, and chemotherapy as independent risk factors for distant metastases in uLMS patients. The outcomes of both univariate and multivariate Cox analyses indicated that surgery and chemotherapy emerged as independent protective factors for prognosis in uLMS patients with distant metastases, whereas higher histological grade and T stage were identified as independent risk factors. The risk nomogram incorporating independent risk variables and the prognostic nomogram integrating independent prognostic factors could respectively predict the risk of metastases and the prognosis very effectively in both training and validation cohorts. Conclusions: In summary, we developed the novel well-validated risk nomogram to precisely assess the probability of metastases in uLMS patients and prognostic nomogram to predict the prognosis of those with distant metastases, providing decision-making guidance for tailoring individualized clinical management of these patients.