ArticleNature2024
Overconfidence in climate overshoot.
Abstract read
In one paragraph
Article in Nature, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers.
0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
27citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
27 citing papers in PubMed.
- Increasing lifetime exposure to extreme fire weather under climate change in Europe.Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site] · 2026Article
- Permafrost carbon release scales linearly with overshoot warming mediated by AMOC tipping.Nature communications · 2026Article
- The Genoeconomics of Impulsive Intertemporal Choice: A Critical Review.Journal of the experimental analysis of behavior · 2026Review
- Limited impact of Greenland meltwater on abruptness and reversibility of future Atlantic overturning changes.Science advances · 2026Article
- The variability fingerprint of a warming world informing climate risk and solutions.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Article
- Short-term action is key for gigaton-scale Direct Air Capture by 2050.Nature communications · 2026Article
- High-ambition climate action in all sectors can achieve a 59% greenhouse gas emissions reduction in Korea by 2035.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Negative emissions to mitigate Earth system risks.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Empirical insights into residual emissions in urban net-zero targets.Nature climate change · 2026Article
- Irreversible climate changes driven by degree-years of temperature overshoot.Communications earth & environment · 2026Article
- Article
- An ecosystem of carbon dioxide removal reviews - part 1: direct air COEnergy & environmental science · 2025Review
- The human and social impacts of climate overshoot.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Reversible fluorenol photobases that perform CONature chemistry · 2025Article
- Article
- Plausible global emissions scenario for 2 °C aligned with China's net-zero pathway.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Scientific literature on carbon dioxide removal revealed as much larger through AI-enhanced systematic mapping.Nature communications · 2025Article
- No compromise in efficiency from the co-application of a marine and a terrestrial CDR method.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Using net-zero carbon debt to track climate overshoot responsibility.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
30 authors.
Carl-Friedrich SchleussnerInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria. schleussner@iiasa.ac.at.ORCID 0000-0001-8471-848X
Gaurav GantiInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.ORCID 0000-0001-6638-4076
Quentin LejeuneGeography Department and IRITHESys Institute, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany.ORCID 0000-0001-9152-3197
Biqing ZhuInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.ORCID 0000-0001-9360-6797
Peter PfleidererClimate Analytics, Berlin, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-1493-4598
Ruben PrützGeography Department and IRITHESys Institute, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-3345-9083
Philippe CiaisLaboratoire des Sciences du Climate et de l'Environnement, LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
Thomas L FrölicherClimate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Sabine FussGeography Department and IRITHESys Institute, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-8681-9839
Thomas GasserInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.ORCID 0000-0003-4882-2647
Matthew J GiddenInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.ORCID 0000-0003-0687-414X
Chahan M KropfDepartment of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-3761-2292
Fabrice LacroixClimate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Robin LambollCentre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-8410-037X
Rosanne MartyrGeography Department and IRITHESys Institute, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-0506-667X
Fabien MaussionDepartment of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria.ORCID 0000-0002-3211-506X
Jamie W McCaugheyDepartment of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland.
Malte MeinshausenInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.ORCID 0000-0003-4048-3521
Matthias MengelPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID 0000-0001-6724-9685
Zebedee NichollsInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.ORCID 0000-0002-4767-2723
Yann QuilcailleDepartment of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0002-1474-0144
Benjamin SandersonCentre for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway.ORCID 0000-0001-8635-4624
Sonia I SeneviratneDepartment of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland.ORCID 0000-0001-9528-2917
Jana SillmannResearch Unit for Sustainability and Climate Risks, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany.
Christopher J SmithInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.ORCID 0000-0003-0599-4633
Norman J SteinertCentre for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway.ORCID 0000-0002-2154-5857
Emily TheokritoffGeography Department and IRITHESys Institute, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany.ORCID 0000-0003-0632-9862
Rachel WarrenTyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-0122-1599
Jeff PriceTyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-7795-5628
Joeri RogeljInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.ORCID 0000-0003-2056-9061
Funding
Bundesministerium für Bildung und ForschungGerman Research FoundationHorizon 2020 research and innovation programmes of the European Union
Abstract
Global emission reduction efforts continue to be insufficient to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement
Indexed as
Carbon DioxideCarbon SequestrationEnvironmental PolicyGlobal WarmingGoalsInternational CooperationUncertaintyClimate ModelsRisk Evaluation and MitigationTemperatureTime FactorsCarbon Dioxide
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
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LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390
Registered trials
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.