Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39384934›Full record

ArticleCommunications medicine2024

Methodological choices and clinical usefulness for machine learning predictions of outcome in Internet-based cognitive behavioural therapy.

Nils Hentati Isacsson, Fehmi Ben Abdesslem, Erik Forsell, Magnus Boman, Viktor Kaldo

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Communications medicine, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
13citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Nils Hentati IsacssonCentre for Psychiatry Research, Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, & Stockholm Health Care Services, Region Stockholm, Sweden. nils.isacsson@ki.se.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5749-5310
Fehmi Ben AbdesslemCentre for Psychiatry Research, Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, & Stockholm Health Care Services, Region Stockholm, Sweden.
Erik ForsellCentre for Psychiatry Research, Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, & Stockholm Health Care Services, Region Stockholm, Sweden.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8236-4323
Magnus BomanDivision of Psychiatry, University College London, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7949-1815
Viktor KaldoCentre for Psychiatry Research, Department of Clinical Neuroscience, Karolinska Institutet, & Stockholm Health Care Services, Region Stockholm, Sweden.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundWhile psychological treatments are effective, a substantial portion of patients do not benefit enough. Early identification of those may allow for adaptive treatment strategies and improved outcomes. We aimed to evaluate the clinical usefulness of machine-learning (ML) models predicting outcomes in Internet-based Cognitive Behavioural Therapy, to compare ML-related methodological choices, and guide future use of these.

methodsEighty main models were compared. Baseline variables, weekly symptoms, and treatment activity were used to predict treatment outcomes in a dataset of 6695 patients from regular care.

resultsWe show that the best models use handpicked predictors and impute missing data. No ML algorithm shows clear superiority. They have a mean balanced accuracy of 78.1% at treatment week four, closely matched by regression (77.8%).

conclusionsML surpasses the benchmark for clinical usefulness (67%). Advanced and simple models perform equally, indicating a need for more data or smarter methodological designs to confirm advantages of ML.

Identifiers

PMID39384934
PMCPMC11464669

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.