ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2024
Rainfall events and daily mortality across 645 global locations: two stage time series analysis.
Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Direct and spillover hospitalisation patterns during climate hazards across regions of different health-system resilience levels in China: a nationwide retrospective analysis.The Lancet. Planetary health · 2026Observational
- Extreme rainfall and anaemia among children under five in 46 low- and middle-income countries.BMJ global health · 2026Article
- Article
- Impact of heavy rainfall on ambulance response time in Japan.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Article
- Cause specific mortality risks associated with tropical cyclones in multiple countries and territories: two stage, time series study.BMJ (Clinical research ed.) · 2025Article
- Hospitalization risk and burden for cause-specific cardiovascular diseases following tropical cyclones: A multicountry study.Science advances · 2025Article
- Floods and cause-specific mortality in the United States applying a triply robust approach.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Hospitalization risks associated with floods in a multi-country study.Nature water · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
Authors and funding
58 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveTo examine the associations between characteristics of daily rainfall (intensity, duration, and frequency) and all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality.
designTwo stage time series analysis.
setting645 locations across 34 countries or regions. POPULATION: Daily mortality data, comprising a total of 109 954 744 all cause, 31 164 161 cardiovascular, and 11 817 278 respiratory deaths from 1980 to 2020.
main outcome measureAssociation between daily mortality and rainfall events with return periods (the expected average time between occurrences of an extreme event of a certain magnitude) of one year, two years, and five years, with a 14 day lag period. A continuous relative intensity index was used to generate intensity-response curves to estimate mortality risks at a global scale.
resultsDuring the study period, a total of 50 913 rainfall events with a one year return period, 8362 events with a two year return period, and 3301 events with a five year return period were identified. A day of extreme rainfall with a five year return period was significantly associated with increased daily all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, with cumulative relative risks across 0-14 lag days of 1.08 (95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.11), 1.05 (1.02 to 1.08), and 1.29 (1.19 to 1.39), respectively. Rainfall events with a two year return period were associated with respiratory mortality only, whereas no significant associations were found for events with a one year return period. Non-linear analysis revealed protective effects (relative risk <1) with moderate-heavy rainfall events, shifting to adverse effects (relative risk >1) with extreme intensities. Additionally, mortality risks from extreme rainfall events appeared to be modified by climate type, baseline variability in rainfall, and vegetation coverage, whereas the moderating effects of population density and income level were not significant. Locations with lower variability of baseline rainfall or scarce vegetation coverage showed higher risks.
conclusionDaily rainfall intensity is associated with varying health effects, with extreme events linked to an increasing relative risk for all cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. The observed associations varied with local climate and urban infrastructure.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.