Analysis of the structure and trend prediction of China's total health expenditure.

Background: In the context of rapid economic and social development, there has been a continuous intensification of population aging, transformation of disease patterns, and wide application of new medical technologies. As a result, health expenditures in various countries have sharply soared. How to utilize limited medical resources to maximize the improvement of health levels has become a hot and challenging issue related to the well-being of all humanity. The relevant indicators of total health expenditure play a crucial role in monitoring and evaluating the fairness of health financing and health security in the region. Objective: This study explores the changes in the main expenses that constitute China's total health expenditure and uses indicators related to health expenditure to observe the changes and future development trends of China's health expenditure. Based on this, the utilization of China's health expenditure is monitored to identify possible problems, and thereby targeted suggestions for promoting the development of China's health and wellness cause are put forward. Methods: Based on the comparison of previous literature, this paper analyzes the changes and future development trends in China's health expenditure by using the relevant indicators of China's health expenditure through the structural variation analysis method and the gray prediction model. Results: The results show that the scale of government, social, and out-of-pocket health expenditures has continuously expanded, with social health expenditures becoming the main funding source for total health expenditures. The burden of medical expenditures on individuals has been further reduced. In the institutional method of total health expenditures, hospital expenditures account for about 60% of the total and are the main component. The expenditures of health administration and medical insurance management institutions are the main driving force behind the growth of total health expenditures. However, the proportion of health expenditures in China's GDP is relatively low, so more investment is needed in the healthcare sector, and the burden of individual medical expenses also needs to be continuously reduced. Discussion: In the future, China should further increase its investment in the medical and health sector. Specifically, the government should persist in investing in fundamental medical and health services. Simultaneously, efforts should be made to establish a scientific cost control mechanism for pharmaceuticals and broaden financing channels for healthcare, such as accelerating the development of commercial health insurance.