ArticleNature aging2024
Implausibility of radical life extension in humans in the twenty-first century.
Article in Nature aging, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 45 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
45 citing papers in PubMed.
- Against the "extend healthspan but not lifespan" cliché.GeroScience · 2026Article
- Global evidence for bounded human lifespan growth.Biogerontology · 2026Article
- Reframing the epidemiological transition as increasing returns to tackling aging-related diseases.Nature aging · 2026Article
- The long-lived immune system of centenarians.Nature reviews. Immunology · 2026Review
- Targeting Reduced Glutathione (GSH) to Promote Metabolic Health: Insights on the Role of Bioactive-Rich Foods and Fasting Protocols.International journal of molecular sciences · 2026Review
- Erythrocyte Count, Anemia, and the Human Natural Lifespan Limit: Evidence from the Long Life Family Study.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- Review
- Article
- Comparative Evaluation of Antiaging Potential of Cymbopogon Citratus Conjugated Silver Nanoparticles and Citral Against D-galactose Induced Aging in Mice.Cell biochemistry and biophysics · 2026Article
- Article
- Unlocking the Power of Plant-Derived Natural Products: Therapeutic Benefits for Cognitive Health and Neuropsychiatric Symptoms in Dementia-Related Diseases.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Review
- Article
- Biological evidence of the life expectancy limit in human aging.GeroScience · 2026Article
- Insights into US life expectancy stagnation from birth cohort mortality dynamics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- A spatiotemporal analysis of administrative emergency hospitalization data (2012-2021) to assess outreach service adequacy to elderly residential care homes in Hong Kong.BMC health services research · 2026Article
- Gerontology lost in translation from demography to biology of aging and back.Biogerontology · 2026Review
- "Metabolic memory" of aging: anchoring, transmission, and frontiers of transgenerational intervention.Biogerontology · 2026Review
- Potential and challenges for sustainable progress in human longevity.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Article
- Integrating physical healthcare into psychiatry for severe mental illness: A narrative review and position statement from the ECNP PAN-Health group.Neuroscience applied · 2026Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Over the course of the twentieth century, human life expectancy at birth rose in high-income nations by approximately 30 years, largely driven by advances in public health and medicine. Mortality reduction was observed initially at an early age and continued into middle and older ages. However, it was unclear whether this phenomenon and the resulting accelerated rise in life expectancy would continue into the twenty-first century. Here using demographic survivorship metrics from national vital statistics in the eight countries with the longest-lived populations (Australia, France, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland) and in Hong Kong and the United States from 1990 to 2019, we explored recent trends in death rates and life expectancy. We found that, since 1990, improvements overall in life expectancy have decelerated. Our analysis also revealed that resistance to improvements in life expectancy increased while lifespan inequality declined and mortality compression occurred. Our analysis suggests that survival to age 100 years is unlikely to exceed 15% for females and 5% for males, altogether suggesting that, unless the processes of biological aging can be markedly slowed, radical human life extension is implausible in this century.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.