ArticleBMC gastroenterology2024
Analyzing risk factors and constructing a predictive model for superficial esophageal carcinoma with submucosal infiltration exceeding 200 micrometers.
Article in BMC gastroenterology, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Mapping Two Decades of Research on Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection in Esophageal Cancer: A Bibliometric and Visual Analysis.Medical science monitor : international medical journal of experimental and clinical research · 2026Article
- Predicting the magnitude of risk for non-curative endoscopic submucosal dissection in superficial esophageal cancer using explainable artificial intelligence.World journal of gastrointestinal oncology · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveSubmucosal infiltration of less than 200 μm is considered an indication for endoscopic surgery in cases of superficial esophageal cancer and precancerous lesions. This study aims to identify the risk factors associated with submucosal infiltration exceeding 200 micrometers in early esophageal cancer and precancerous lesions, as well as to establish and validate an accompanying predictive model.
methodsRisk factors were identified through least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate logistic regression. Various machine learning (ML) classification models were tested to develop and evaluate the most effective predictive model, with Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) employed for model visualization.
resultsPredictive factors for early esophageal invasion into the submucosa included endoscopic ultrasonography or magnifying endoscopy> SM1(P<0.001,OR = 3.972,95%CI 2.161-7.478), esophageal wall thickening(P<0.001,OR = 12.924,95%CI,5.299-33.96), intake of pickled foods(P=0.04,OR = 1.837,95%CI,1.03-3.307), platelet-lymphocyte ratio(P<0.001,OR = 0.284,95%CI,0.137-0.556), tumor size(P<0.027,OR = 2.369,95%CI,1.128-5.267), the percentage of circumferential mucosal defect(P<0.001,OR = 5.286,95%CI,2.671-10.723), and preoperative pathological type(P<0.001,OR = 4.079,95%CI,2.254-7.476). The logistic regression model constructed from the identified risk factors was found to be the optimal model, demonstrating high efficacy with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.922 in the training set, 0.899 in the validation set, and 0.850 in the test set.
conclusionA logistic regression model complemented by SHAP visualizations effectively identifies early esophageal cancer reaching 200 micrometers into the submucosa.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.