ArticleAging clinical and experimental research2024
Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting pulmonary complications in elderly patients undergoing thoracic surgery.
Article in Aging clinical and experimental research, 2024. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Development and External Validation of an Explainable Machine-Learning Model for Predicting Postoperative Pulmonary Complications in Older Adults Undergoing Degenerative Spine Surgery.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Article
- Risk factors, pathogenesis, and botanical drugs interventions for postoperative pulmonary complications after cardiothoracic surgery: a narrative review.Journal of thoracic disease · 2026Review
- Interpretable machine learning model predicts postoperative complications after thoracoscopic mediastinal tumor surgery: a multicenter study.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2026Article
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13 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundPostoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) remain a prevalent concern among elderly patients undergoing surgery, with a notably higher incidence observed in elderly patients undergoing thoracic surgery. This study aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the risk of PPCs in this population.
methodsA total of 2963 elderly patients who underwent thoracic surgery were enrolled and randomly divided into a training cohort (80%, n = 2369) or a validation cohort (20%, n = 593). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify risk factors for PPCs, and a nomogram was developed based on the findings from the training cohort. The validation cohort was used to validate the model. The predictive accuracy of the model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, area under ROC (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).
resultsA total of 918 (31.0%) patients reported PPCs. Nine independent risk factors for PPCs were identified: preoperative presence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), elevated leukocyte count, higher partial pressure of arterial carbon dioxide (PaCO
conclusionThis study highlighted the pressing need for early detection of PPCs in elderly patients undergoing thoracic surgery. The nomogram exhibited promising predictive efficacy for PPCs in elderly patients undergoing thoracic surgery, enabling the identification of high-risk patients and consequently aiding in the implementation of preventive interventions.
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