Initial Retinal Nerve Fiber Layer Loss and Risk of Diabetic Retinopathy Over a Four-Year Period.

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate whether the rapid rate of peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (pRNFL) thinning in short-term is associated with the future risk of developing diabetic retinopathy (DR). Methods: This prospective cohort study utilized 4-year follow-up data from the Guangzhou Diabetic Eye Study. The pRNFL thickness was measured by optical coherence tomography (OCT). DR was graded by seven-field fundus photography after dilation of the pupil. Correlations between pRNFL thinning rate and DR were analyzed using logistic regression. The additive predictive value of the prediction model was assessed using the C-index, net reclassification index (NRI), and integrated discriminant improvement index (IDI). Results: A total of 1012 patients with diabetes (1012 eyes) without DR at both baseline and 1-year follow-up were included in this study. Over the 4-year follow-up, 132 eyes (13%) developed DR. After adjusting for confounding factors, a faster rate of initial pRNFL thinning was significantly associated with the risk of DR (odds ratio per standard deviation [SD] decrease = 1.15, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.08 to 1.23, P < 0.001). Incorporating either the baseline pRNFL thickness or its thinning rate into conventional prediction models significantly improved the discriminatory power. Adding the rate of pRNFL thinning further enhanced the discriminative power compared with models with only baseline pRNFL thickness (C-index increased from 0.685 to 0.731, P = 0.040). The IDI and NRI were 0.114 and 0.463, respectively (P < 0.001). Conclusions: The rate of initial pRNFL thinning was associated with DR occurrence and improved discriminatory power of traditional predictive models. This provides new insights into the management and screening of DR.