Retinal Pigment Epithelium Curvature Can Predict Late Age-Related Macular Degeneration.

Purpose: Outer retinal band integrity strongly predicts late age-related macular degeneration (AMD). However, it is often assessed subjectively as "continuity" using inconsistent definitions. Alternatively, "curvature" of the outer retinal bands is a quantitative metric that strongly correlates with AMD biomarkers and can screen for intermediate AMD. We evaluated the prognostic ability of retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) and ellipsoid zone (EZ) curvature for late AMD against outer retinal band continuity, pigmentary abnormalities, reticular pseudodrusen, and drusen volume. Methods: Consecutive patients with intermediate AMD who progressed to late AMD (n = 17) or remained stable (n = 42) were recruited. RPE and EZ curvature were quantified as a ratio of their lengths over Bruch's membrane using the sinuosity method of assessing river curvature, where a ratio of ∼1 indicates no outer retinal pathology. RPE, EZ, and Bruch's membrane were manually segmented and their lengths automatically extracted. The primary outcomes were outer retinal sinuosity and the odds ratio of predicting late AMD. Results: Mean follow-up time for progressors and nonprogressors was 4.4 and 3.6 years. RPE sinuosity was strongly associated with pigmentary abnormalities (P = 0.001) and drusen volume (P = 0.004) but not reticular pseudodrusen (P = 0.28). RPE sinuosity >1.03 was the strongest predictor of late AMD developing within 5 years (15 [2.9-75]) and across the study period (25 [2.3-282]). Drusen volume >0.03 mm3 was the strongest predictor of progression within 2 years (33 [2.5-426]), and RPD could not independently predict progression within any time frame. Conclusions: RPE curvature is a promising, quantitative outer retinal biomarker that can prognosticate late AMD and potentially enhance prognostic models.