Evidence map›Paper›PMID 39362617›Full record

SynthesisClinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association2025

Global Progression Rates of Precursor Lesions for Gastric Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Anne I Hahn, Duco T Mülder, Robert J Huang, Margaret J Zhou, Benjamin Blake, Omonefe Omofuma, John D Murphy, Daniela S Gutiérrez-Torres, Ann G Zauber, James F O'Mahony and 7 more

Abstract readMeta-AnalysisSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Guideline
  2. Effect ofFrontiers in microbiology · 2025
    Pooled it
  3. Pooled it
  4. Review
  5. Prevalence and Progression of Subtypes of Gastric Premalignant Lesions: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association · 2026
    Review
  6. Review
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Review
  11. Article
  12. Gastro-Esophageal Disorders of the Geriatric Population.The American journal of gastroenterology · 2025
    Article
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

17 authors.

Anne I HahnDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York. Electronic address: hahna1@mskcc.org.
Duco T MülderDepartment of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Robert J HuangDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California.
Margaret J ZhouDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California.
Benjamin BlakeWeill Cornell Medical College of Cornell University, New York, New York.
Omonefe OmofumaDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland.
John D MurphyDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland.
Daniela S Gutiérrez-TorresDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland.
Ann G ZauberDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York.
James F O'MahonyDepartment of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands; School of Economics, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland.
M Constanza CamargoDivision of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, Maryland.
Uri LadabaumDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California.
Jennifer M YehDepartment of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts.
Chin HurDivision of General Medicine, Department of Medicine, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, New York; Herbert Irving Comprehensive Cancer Center, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, New York.
Iris Lansdorp-VogelaarDepartment of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Reinier MeesterDepartment of Public Health, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Health Economics & Outcomes Research, Freenome Holdings Inc, San Francisco, California.
Monika LaszkowskaGastroenterology, Hepatology, and Nutrition Service, Department of Subspecialty Medicine, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York.

Funding

X-RAY CRYSTALLOGRAPHYP30CA008748 · NCI · SLOAN-KETTERING INSTITUTE FOR CANCER RES · PI SELWYN M VICKERS · 1985 to 2026
$347.4M
Institutional Career Development CoreKL2TR001874 · NCATS · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI GENKINGER, JEANINE M., SHIMBO, DAICHI · 2016 to 2025
$13.6M
Comparative modeling of gastric cancer health drivers and prevention in the US and globallyU01CA265729 · NCI · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI HUR, CHIN, YEH, JENNIFER M. · 2021 to 2025
$4.1M
Coordinating Center for the Program on the Origins of Gastroesophageal CancersU24CA272897 · NCI · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI JEANINE M. GENKINGER, Jianhua Hu · 2022 to 2026
$4.0M
PRECISE - a PErsonalized Risk Score for gastrIc CancErK08CA252635 · NCI · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI HUANG, ROBERT JEFFREY · 2021 to 2025
$941k
A Targeted Approach to the Surveillance of Precursor Lesions for Gastric CancerK08DK125876 · NIDDK · SLOAN-KETTERING INST CAN RESEARCH · PI LASZKOWSKA, MONIKA · 2021 to 2025
$838k
NCATS NIH HHS KL2 TR001874NCI NIH HHS K08 CA252635NCI NIH HHS P30 CA008748NCI NIH HHS U01 CA265729NCI NIH HHS U24 CA272897NIDDK NIH HHS K08 DK125876
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND &

aimsWhether gastric cancer (GC) precursor lesions progress to invasive cancer at similar rates globally remains unknown. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the progression of precursor lesions to GC in countries with low versus medium/high incidence.

methodsWe searched relevant databases for studies reporting the progression of endoscopically confirmed precursor lesions to GC. Studies were stratified by low (<6 per 100,000) or medium/high (≥6 per 100,000) GC incidence countries. Random-effects models were used to estimate the progression rates of atrophic gastritis (AG), intestinal metaplasia (IM), and dysplasia to GC per 1000 person-years.

resultsAmong the 5829 studies identified, 44 met our inclusion criteria. The global pooled estimates of the progression rate per 1000 person-years were 2.09 (95% confidence interval, 1.46-2.99), 2.89 (2.03-4.11), and 10.09 (5.23-19.49) for AG, IM, and dysplasia, respectively. The estimated progression rates per 1000 person-years for low versus medium/high GC incidence countries, respectively, were 0.97 (0.86-1.10) versus 2.47 (1.70-2.99) for AG (P < .01), 2.37 (1.43-3.92) versus 3.47 (2.13-5.65) for IM (P = .29), and 5.51 (2.92-10.39) versus 14.80 (5.87-37.28) for dysplasia (P = .08). There were no differences for progression of AG between groups when high-quality studies were compared.

conclusionsSimilar progression rates of IM and dysplasia were observed among low and medium/high GC incidence countries. This suggests that the potential benefits of surveillance for these lesions in low-risk regions may be comparable with those of population-wide interventions in high-risk regions. Further prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings and inform global screening and surveillance guidelines.

Indexed as

Disease ProgressionPrecancerous ConditionsStomach NeoplasmsGlobal HealthHumansIncidenceMetaplasiaGastric CancerNatural HistoryPrecursor LesionsProgression

Identifiers

PMID39362617
PMCPMC11958785

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.